Continuing Upside Risks to Inflation

Here’s the key inflation paragraph from yesterday’s Fed minutes

"Participants noted that, while the pass-through of higher energy and other commodity prices to prices of core goods and services had remained subdued, there were continuing upside risks to inflation from these sources. Whatever the size of such pass-through effects, however, it was thought that they would probably be temporary in nature and likely diminish as energy prices flattened out, as long as inflation expectations did not move higher. In that regard, participants were encouraged that, despite recent energy price increases, survey measures of inflation expectations had notched down and longer-term inflation compensation in financial markets was little changed. Although high profit margins could imply some existing pricing power, they might also provide a cushion to absorb some future cost increases. Indeed, anecdotal reports suggested that the ability of firms to pass through higher input costs generally remained limited. Nevertheless, the increased prices of energy and other commodities and the possibility of a further rise in resource utilization, which some members viewed as nearly full at present, represented continuing risks, potentially adding to inflation pressures."
(emphasis added)

By now, you should know my views on the subject . . .

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Sources:
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee
FRB, January 31, 2006
http://federalreserve.gov/fomc/minutes/20060131.htm

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