The Negativity Bubble

I keep hearing people say that there is "too much negativity out there."

Investors should understand that the way this is typically presented, it is merely an opinion. ("I think, I feel, I believe").

However, I prefer quantitative metrics — hard numbers — to feelings/opinions. Dougie Kass sends along these two data points:

• The cash positions in mutual funds stand at 3.8%, slightly below the 3.9% low established in 1972.

• Margin debt as a percentage of the S&P market cap has
climbed to 2.4%, an all-time high. The previous peak? Early 2000, at the height of the Internet bubble.


Data always trumps anecdotal evidence.


What’s in your wallet sentiment model?


Category: Psychology

Global Returns: YTD, QTD

Category: Investing, Markets

SPX: Flat negative for the Year

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis, Trading

Raging Bull

Category: Markets, Psychology

How To Speak Hedgie

Category: Hedge Funds

Ratings Agencies 2007 = Equity Analysts 2000 ?

Category: Credit, Derivatives, Hedge Funds, Psychology, Real Estate

Open Thread: Closing the Barn Door on Sub-Prime ARM Mortgages

To be filed under "Better-Late-Than-Never" regulatory actions: The Federal Reserve is considering the following changes in Sub-Prime lending disclosures:

The federal financial regulatory agencies today issued proposed illustrations
of consumer information for certain adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) products
described in the agencies’ Statement on Subprime Mortgage Lending (Subprime
Statement), effective July 10, 2007. The Subprime Statement recommends
communications that ensure consumers have clear, balanced, and timely
information about the relative benefits and risks of certain ARM products. The
illustrations are intended to assist institutions in providing this information.

(Below is a table of the proposed changes)

So is this a case of too-little-too-late, or might this actually accomplish something positive?

What say ye?


click for larger table


The rest of the proposed changes are after the jump . . .

Read More

Category: Credit, Derivatives, Federal Reserve, Psychology, Real Estate

Media Appearance: Kudlow & Company (8/14/07)

Category: Media

Goldman Sachs Conference Call Highlights

Category: Corporate Management, Derivatives, Earnings, Hedge Funds

Money Markets Substitute Halting Redemptions

Category: Credit, Markets, Psychology