My expectations about the Jobs Report

I wanted to address a few emailers on yesterday’s column, and today’s CNBC appearance.

Yes, I am out on a limb with this jobs report – but as I said on the air – that was an off the cuff remark – I don’t track jobs or do the leg work to accurately forecast them. Instead, I track the market and its reactions to economic data.

But the bigger issue is why have the forecasters been so wrong? Something odd is going on, and no one has figured it out yet.

Still, I find the ongoing forecasting error to be fascinating. As I mentioned, tomorrow is the dismal crowd’s best chance to win “the over,” with a 225 consensus and a 300k “whisper number.” (Who’s the CFO that’s whispering? The Fed Chair? Damned if I know).

Even though I took the under, this is one bet I HOPE I am wrong about . . . 

Category: Economy, Markets

CNBC The Mystery of the Awful Economists

Category: Economy, Markets, Media

Media Appearance: Guest Hosting Squawk Box (3/3/05)

Category: Media

The Mystery of the Awful Economists

“We have 2 classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know… and those who don’t know they don’t know.” — John Kenneth Galbraith I’ve been making a fortune lately. (No, I don’t own any Google IPO shares). Each month, I’ve been betting on the outcome of the Non-Farm Payroll report against my economist colleagues. I’ve been…Read More

Category: Economy, Markets, Politics

Media Appearance: Guest Hosting Squawk Box (3/3/05)

Category: Media

New Column up at Real Money (03/02/05)

Category: Media

The Mystery of the Awful Economists

This was originally published at the The Street.com’s Real Moeny on 3/2/2005 3:42 PM > “We have 2 classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know… and those who don’t know they don’t know.” – John Kenneth Galbraith > A savvy speculator could have made a fortune lately betting on the outcome of the nonfarm payroll…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Employment, Really, really bad calls

Greenspan’s New Forecast

Category: Economy, Markets

Modern Art Market Superheats

Category: Finance, Markets, Trading

Mark Hulbert on CNBC

Category: Markets, Media