Yes, I am out on a limb with this jobs report – but as I said on the air – that was an off the cuff remark – I don’t track jobs or do the leg work to accurately forecast them. Instead, I track the market and its reactions to economic data.
But the bigger issue is why have the forecasters been so wrong? Something odd is going on, and no one has figured it out yet.
Still, I find the ongoing forecasting error to be fascinating. As I mentioned, tomorrow is the dismal crowd’s best chance to win “the over,” with a 225 consensus and a 300k “whisper number.” (Who’s the CFO that’s whispering? The Fed Chair? Damned if I know).
Even though I took the under, this is one bet I HOPE I am wrong about . . .
“We have 2 classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know… and those who don’t know they don’t know.” — John Kenneth Galbraith I’ve been making a fortune lately. (No, I don’t own any Google IPO shares). Each month, I’ve been betting on the outcome of the Non-Farm Payroll report against my economist colleagues. I’ve been…Read More
This was originally published at the The Street.com’s Real Moeny on 3/2/2005 3:42 PM > “We have 2 classes of forecasters: Those who don’t know… and those who don’t know they don’t know.” – John Kenneth Galbraith > A savvy speculator could have made a fortune lately betting on the outcome of the nonfarm payroll…Read More