Toe in the Water

I mentioned last week that I believed the technicals
were favoring a
short term upside pop
. I also suggested that I was waiting for this week to make any purchases.

I am purchasing a smattering of QQQQs, SMHs, and SPYs here for a trade; I expect to hold these less than 30 days.

Caveat: understand that I scale in slowly, and have a tendency to be a touch early . . .

Category: Trading

4,500,000 hits . . .

Category: Weblogs

Can M3 be Saved?

Category: Data Analysis, Federal Reserve, Politics

Thick as a BRIC

Category: Investing, Markets

Weekend Linkfest

Category: Weblogs

Radio Economics: The Greenspan Era

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Investing, Markets

New Column up at Real Money (03/03/06)

Category: Trading

You know you are a Permabull when…

Category: Psychology

Read it here first: Rebates Suck

Category: Financial Press, Retail

Real Estate Round Up

This past week saw a lot of Real Estate related data, all of which fits our long term thesis about the macro economy and what’s to come over the next few years.

For those of you who may be newer to the site, we have been dicussing this for quite a while: starting in December 2004, we noted how Real Estate was a prime driver of the economy, and in Spring 2005, how new hiring was overly reliant on the Real Estate Sector; in August 2005, we called that Housing was beginning to show signs of cooling, and that this would eventually wreak havoc on consumer spending. In the Fall 2005, we noted how dependent GDP had become on Mortgage Equity extraction. You can find all of these by using the site search function, right sidebar.

Now as  of March 2006, most of these concepts have become widely recognized and (mostly) accepted — but when they were first introduced here, there was no small amount of incredulity and pushback surrounding them.

Looking forward, I see rates rising, housing cooling further, the consumer cutting back, and the stimulus driven economy slowing, if not slipping into an outright recession.

On to the round up:

Existing Home Sales Slip 5th Consec Month

Home Foreclosure Surge

Home Prices Decellerate

Supply Up, New Homes Sales Down

New Homes Sales: 4th Drop in 6 months

• And the most ironic piece of all, The WSJ’s Greg Ip Discovers Data Manipulation

There’s more all over the web if you want to surf, but that’s the main gist of it.

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UPDATE March 5, 2006 4:44pm

The NYT’s Sunday Magazine is all about Real Estate

Go to Introduction: The For-Sale Society

See the Sunday Times Mag TOC after the jump . . .

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Read More

Category: Real Estate