Good New/Bad News

The Good News is the Economy is continuing its slow progress across nearly all regions of the U.S.

click for original full size graphic

Nyt_econ_price

Source:  NYT
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The Bad News is inflationary pressures are prevalent, especially in Food and Energy. That hasd the potential to impact consumer spending dramatically . . .

click for original full size graphic

Nyt_20050120_food_2

Source: NYT

The economic improvements are welcome, but let me reiterate my long term economic perspective:  This has not been an organic recovery, but rather an extremely government manipulated, stimulus managed bounceback. The ultra low interest rates, the deficit spending, the military expenditures, and yes, even the tax cuts have all contributed to the recovery.

What will be evidence of a self-sustaining organic recovery? Significant Hiring improvements, income increases, and increased corporate appetite for risk taking and capital spending.

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Sources:
Price Index Rose 3.3% in ’04, Highest in 4 Years
LOUIS UCHITELLE   
NYT, January 20, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/20/business/20price.html

Food Prices in New York in Biggest Leap in 14 Years
JENNIFER STEINHAUER
NYT, January 20, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/20/nyregion/20consume.html

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