A brief comment on today’s NFP report — brief only because a 4 day weekend and the beach is becking me.
Non-farm payrolls rose by 169,000 in August — well below the 242,000
increase recorded in July, and below the 190k consensus. Note that we require about 150,000 new jobs/month merely to keep up with population growth. That makes today’s data mild to mediocre.
The pace of hiring slowed in August, and wage increases to workers were also smaller. The WSJ described this as "extending the pattern of growth and slowdown that Federal Reserve policymakers have linked to oil prices."
June and July data were revised upwards by 44,000 more non-farm jobs in than previously estimated. The Birth/Death adjustment for August was 132,000, compared with last August’s 123,000. (Note that this is NOT additive on a one-for-one basis, but enters the model further upstream — the net impact is to impart a positive bias, but not nearly a 132k gains).
Unemployment rate dropped to a four-year low of 4.9% (its derived from a survey of households rather than businesses). BLS also noted that the growth of average hourly earnings slowed to a 0.1% rate in August.
WSJ: "The Labor Department said Katrina had no effect on its numbers for August, because the jobs data were gathered before the hurricane struck."
Employers Added 169,000 Jobs In August; Jobless Rate Declined
By JOSEPH REBELLO and NICOLAS BRULLIARD
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
September 2, 2005 8:36 a.m.
It appears the damage to New Orleans region is far worse than originally expected. As we did with the Tsunami, here are numerous resources that you may find helpful in keeping informed about the damage, and making donations to help survivors:
1) Relief Organizations
Known as the most efficient relief charity in the U.S. (and Non-denominational also)
88 Hamilton Avenue, Stamford, CT USA 06902
Toll Free: 1-800-486-HELP (4357) Phone: 01-203-658-9500
see below for complete list of charities
2) News Coverage
Google Groups katrina relief aid
The KatrinaHelp Wiki relief page
3) Weather Related Resources
National Hurricane Center
Actual Water Level Measurements, at New Orleans, LA
USGS 073802338 IWW @ I-510 Bridge (Paris Rd) http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv/?site_no=073802338
See this Google Map for location:
National Weather Service
Hydrologic Information Center (river flooding)
4) Government Resources
Federal Emergency Management Agency
City of New Orleans
Louisiana Governor’s Office
Mississippi Emergency Management
Louisiana Homeland Security
5) State Government Resources
Louisiana Emergency Road Closures
Mississippi Emergency Road Closures
Alabama Emergency Road Closures
Florida Emergency Road Closures
New Orleans Convention and Visitors Bureau Update
There is a terrific Dow Jones Chart (1900-2004) for sale at the Minyanville.com gallery. Its along the same concept of a chart we did back in 2003 — only this one includes P/E ratios, which is a very instructive addition to the graph: click for an enormous chart: “Officially licensed and designed by Minyanville’s own…Read More