NFP: +169k

A brief comment on today’s NFP report — brief only because a 4 day weekend and the beach is becking me.

Non-farm payrolls rose by 169,000 in August — well below the 242,000
increase recorded in July, and below the 190k consensus. Note that we require about 150,000 new jobs/month merely to keep up with population growth. That makes today’s data mild to mediocre.

The pace of hiring slowed in August, and wage increases to workers were  also smaller. The WSJ described this as "extending the pattern of growth and slowdown that Federal Reserve policymakers have linked to oil prices."

June and July data were revised upwards by 44,000 more non-farm jobs in than previously estimated. The Birth/Death adjustment for August was 132,000, compared with last August’s 123,000. (Note that this is NOT additive on a one-for-one basis, but enters the model further upstream — the net impact is to impart a positive bias, but not nearly a 132k gains).

Unemployment rate dropped to a four-year low of 4.9% (its derived from a survey of households rather than businesses). BLS also noted that the growth of average hourly earnings slowed to a 0.1% rate in August.

WSJ:  "The Labor Department said Katrina had no effect on its numbers for August, because the jobs data were gathered before the hurricane struck."


Employers Added 169,000 Jobs In August; Jobless Rate Declined
September 2, 2005 8:36 a.m.,,SB112566277287030210,00.html

Category: Economy

NFP Today

Category: Economy

Shopped Out?

Category: Economy, Retail

Katrina Overview (or, we’ve gone Map Crazy, Part IV)

Category: Commodities, Media, Psychology, Science, Weblogs

3 and 2 year yield curve inversion

Category: Economy, Fixed Income/Interest Rates

Tracking Fuel Costs

Category: Commodities, Weblogs

PMI, GDP stink up the joint

Category: Economy

Katrina/New Orleans Disaster Relief Aid

It appears the damage to New Orleans region is far worse than originally expected. As we did with the Tsunami, here are numerous resources that you may find helpful in keeping informed about the damage, and making donations to help survivors:

1) Relief Organizations

Known as the most efficient relief charity in the U.S. (and Non-denominational also)
88 Hamilton Avenue, Stamford, CT USA 06902
Toll Free: 1-800-486-HELP (4357) Phone: 01-203-658-9500

American Red Cross
(You can also donate via or the iTunes Music Store)

Salvation Army

see below for complete list of charities

2) News Coverage

Yahoo! FULL COVERAGE: Hurricanes & Tropical Storms

Google Groups katrina relief aid

The KatrinaHelp Wiki relief page

3) Weather Related Resources

National Hurricane Center

Actual Water Level Measurements, at New Orleans, LA
USGS 073802338 IWW @ I-510 Bridge (Paris Rd)

See this Google Map for location:,+New+Orleans,+LA+70129

National Weather Service graphicsversion/bigmain.html

Hydrologic Information Center (river flooding) /index.html

4) Government Resources

Federal Emergency Management Agency

City of New Orleans

Louisiana Governor’s Office

Mississippi Emergency Management

Louisiana Homeland Security

5) State Government Resources

Louisiana Emergency Road Closures

Mississippi Emergency Road Closures

Alabama Emergency Road Closures

Florida Emergency Road Closures

New Orleans Convention and Visitors Bureau Update

Read More

Category: Weblogs

Dow Jones Chart (1900-2004)

There is a terrific Dow Jones Chart (1900-2004) for sale at the gallery. Its along the same concept of a chart we did back in 2003 — only this one includes P/E ratios, which is a very instructive addition to the graph: click for an enormous chart: “Officially licensed and designed by Minyanville’s own…Read More

Category: Investing, Markets

Ben Stein: Wrong About Earnings

Category: Earnings, Economy, Financial Press, Psychology