Chart of the Week: S&P500 (12 months), Fed Edition

As the 12 month chart below reveals, there have been several strong moves off of oversold conditions. Other than the oversold bounce post Katrina, the chatter around each upwards move has involved the expectation that the Fed is (almost) done.


S&P500 12 months, Fed Theory 


Source: Ritholtz Research


What happens as the market comes to realize the Fed may not be so close to finishing?

Stay tuned . . .


Random Items:

3 questions Bernanke should answer   

U.S. Stocks Get a Cheerleader   

Are Weak Commodities Good for Stocks?

Free Markets and the End of History

General Motors Death Watch, part 56

Can Molecular Nanotechnology End Our Oil "Addiction?"

Hold on Tight: GS says, Cuts in Profit Estimates Loom

Rivals aim at iTunes’ grip on music downloads


Quote of the Day

“Ignorance is not knowing something; Stupidity is not admitting your ignorance.” 

-Daniel Turov

Category: Federal Reserve, Technical Analysis

Connect the Retail Sales Dots

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Federal Reserve, Retail


Category: Weblogs

Lowry’s Paul Desmond

Category: Technical Analysis

Covering the Gold Short

Category: Commodities, Trading

What I learned over the past few weeks

Category: Psychology

Are Bears really more rigorous than Bulls?

Category: Economy, Investing, Markets, Psychology, Technical Analysis

Does GM Hedge?

Category: Commodities, Corporate Management, Earnings

A Better Sentiment Measure: DrKW’s Fear & Greed Index

Small World: On Saturday, I mentioned problems with Citibank’s Panic/Euphoria sentiment measure. Then, I discussed the work of James Montier of Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein (DrKW) yesterday, (Seven Sins of Fund Management). This was the first time I ever mentioned him. By coincidence, I read about a Fear/Greed indicator last night from the very same James…Read More

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology

Weekend Linkfest (Nor’Easter Version)

Category: Weblogs