Hubris & Ignorance

If you haven’t seen it yet, I advise you to have a gander at this week’s Dilbert series on trading software:


I love that line:

"It combines past trends that are not indicative of the future with the user’s own hubris & ignorance."

Too funny!


Category: Markets

Prove Me Wrong

Category: Economy, Markets

Chart of the Week: Stock versus Bond Yield

Category: Markets

Economists on December Jobs

Category: Economy

Bloomberg TV (1/10/05)

Category: Media

Barrons picks up “Five for ’05″

Category: Media

Fun with Google

Category: Web/Tech

Likely improbables for 2005

Each year, fund manager Doug Kass steals (Morgan Stanley’s) Byron Wien’s list of unlikely events — 25 possible surprises — for the following year.

The surprises are not predictions, but instead represent long shot events with a better than expected chance of occurring — despite generally low public beliefs in their liklihood.

Call them variant perceptions

Doug notes "I have long felt that developing a variant view (read: surprise) remains an integral part of differentiating one’s investment returns. Mainstream and consensus expectations are just that, and, in most cases, are deeply imbedded in today’s stock prices." 

Kass:  "The real purpose of this endeavor was to consider positioning a portion of my portfolio in some part based on outlier events — with large payoffs. After all, Wall Street research is still very much convention and groupthink, despite the reforms over the past several years. If I succeed in making you think about outlier events, the exercise has been successful. "

I couldn’t agree more . . .

Here is his list of possible surprises in 2005:

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Category: Markets

An Interview With Jeremy Grantham

Category: Markets

Chart of the Week: SPX Chart — support

Category: Markets