Chart of the Week: Dow Industrials (Feb – Oct 2004)

The Dow continues to trade in its downwards channel. As the chart below shows, each cyclical top has been followed by a lower low. The key as to whether this pattern can be broken would be a higher low (in circle with “?”), possibly leading to a break of the upper downtrend line.

Dow Industrials (Feb – Oct 2004)
click for larger chart
Arms_dow_chart_october
Source: Arms Advisory

The sharp downward move has penetrated the lows of late September. The vertical blue lines indicate the very regular cyclicality of the tops. The ellipses are indicating the bottom of each cycle.

Random Items:
Who will the next president name to the key posts?
CGES: OPEC pushing limits of oil production capacity
New Voters’ Impact Debated
China’s Golden Age
How bin Laden got away
The Birth of Supply-Side Liberalism

Quote of the Day:
The test of success is not what you do when you are on top. Success is how high you bounce when you hit bottom.
-General George S. Patton

Category: Finance

Cavuto on Business: (10/26/04)

Category: Media

Carnival of the Capitalists – October 25 2004

Cotc

Hello and welcome to this week’s Carnival of the Capitalists! We have an exciting and wide ranging line up, which I have tried to categorize (a mostly futile exercise, I might add) for your reading pleasure.

So with no further adieu, I present this week’s entrants:
If I missed your trackback, email it to thebigpicture -at- optonline -dot- net.

Internet

Russell Buckley of mobile-weblog.com wonders what the next 10 years on the internet might hold in store:
Sorry I missed your Birthday

“October 17th was the day that the web was officially born just 10 years ago. That day a company called Spry (later CompuServe then AOL) introduced a product called “Internet in a Box.” For the first time, you could trot down to a store, buy a software package, take it home and have everything you needed to connect to the Internet and the World Wide Web . . .”

Giselle A. Tesoro of OSCommerce Experts ponders the “Well-Formed Web Forms” and advises

“How to get your customers to fill you in – with the information you need in forms to be filled up. Let them form a good impression of you and your store – give them forms with function”

Wayne Hurlbert of Blog Business World thinking along similar lines, advises on Converting Visitors into Customers

“The frustration for Johnny was obvious. His website had strong visitor traffic numbers, he thought. Johnny’s site offered a complete line of very good, and highly reputable products. He thought he had set up an acceptable way to buy them online.

There were plenty of visitors arriving daily to make any online business a major success. The problem for Johnny was, despite the large number of people visiting his site, not many of them bought his products.”

Last of the internet series is Lipsticking‘s Yvonne DiVita’s entry: Jane Encourages Small Businesses

Blogs are becoming the “topic” of the day, all over the web, it seems. Jane
cannot open any newsletter, magazine, ezine, or even regular email, without
a question or comment on blogging present in the content.

We are delighted to see our favorite form of communication getting the
attention it deserves, but… the true purpose of web-logging is getting
lost in the rhetoric bouncing around the net.

Incidentally Yvonne gets a bonus mention for “Dickless Marketing: Smart Marketing to Women Online,” — I can’t comment on how effective that title may be — but it sure got my attention.

Alan Greenspan & the Federal Reserve

In my own entry (The Big Picture) to CotC this week, I advise investors to Ignore the Cheerleader-in-Chief

Rawdon Adams of Capital Chronicle discusses Mr. Greenspan’s Oil Choice

Read More

Category: Economy, Finance, Web/Tech, Weblogs

Half a Million Hits!

Category: Weblogs

LEI softens 4th straight month

Category: Finance

Spitzer goes after the Music Industry

Category: Finance, Music

Wal-Mart Wants $10 CDs

Category: Finance, Music

It’s not a community that any party has a lock on,” says Ismael Ahmed, the executive director of Access, the biggest Arab-American social services agency in the country, which is based in Dearborn. “Especially a community like this one where 60% weren’t born here. We’re not really committed to either party.”

“We were motivated when we backed Bush and we are motivated now,” says Osama Sablini, Aapac’s chairman and publisher of the Arab American newspaper, who backed Mr Bush four years ago. “The Bush administration has been a major disappointment to this community and we cannot afford four more years of this.”
-Under siege since 9/11, Arab voters shift to Kerry

When the dust settles on this election, a significant shift will have taken place in several key demographics. Due to a random twist of fate, this will be especially true in the swing states.

The resulting shift in traditional party affiliations could very well throw the election to the challenger.

Since early this year, we’ve been watching a number of key voting blocs “flip flop” (sorry) away from their prior voting patterns. The demographic ethnic groups with the greatest potential to impact the 2004 Presdiential election are both Cubans and Hispanics in Florida, and the Arabs-Americans in the Midwest.

On numerous occasions this year, we have noted, Cuban American voters in Florida continues to be a potential problem for President Bush in the upcoming election. Further, we similarly observed that the President’s support amongst Arab American’s have tumbled, and significantly for this election, in the swing states.

Whether this is a permanent change of party affiliation, or just a reaction to the present regime, is unknown. But it is clear that major changes are taking place. So says The Guardian:

Read More

Category: Politics

Of Black Helicopters & Such

Category: Finance

Projected Electoral College Vote: Swing States, 10/19/04

Category: Politics