New Home Sales Cut in Half

I was chatting with a friend about our earlier post taking apart the New Housing Sales data (Sales drop 23.5%), and he asked — "Gee, how far do you think that’s from the top?"

A few clicks later — and courtesy of Asha G. Bangalore, we learn that sales of new single-family homes are down 47.6% from their peak in July 2005.



To contextualize this, if the current path continues into 2008, Centex
CEO Timothy Eller
 said to Bloomberg, "This looks like it’s going to be the deepest correction
of any housing correction since World War II."

Truly amazing.


Existing Home Sales – Sales and Prices Are Down, Inventories Keep Climbing Up
Asha G. Bangalore,
Northern Trust, November 28, 2007

Housing Slump’s Third Year Will Be `Deepest’ Since World War II
Dan Levy and Brian Louis
Bloomberg, Nov. 30  2007

Category: Corporate Management, Data Analysis, Real Estate

Rally Continues on Bernanke Comments

Category: Credit, Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Psychology

New Home Sales Rebound! (Sales drop 23.5%; Prices fell 13%)

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Real Estate

iPod, Sansa, Zune

Category: Digital Media, Technology, Web/Tech

Hollywood Studio Exec Explains The Writers’ Strike

Category: Digital Media, Film, Television

Combined Value of Leading Credit Sources

Category: Credit, Derivatives, Finance, Financial Press, Technical Analysis

No Conspiracy Theory — Just Data

Category: Data Analysis, Psychology, Taxes and Policy

GDP=4.9% (also, I have a bridge for sale in Brooklyn)

Category: Consumer Spending, Data Analysis, Economy, Inflation, Psychology

Inflation? What Inflation?

A tale of two headlines:

Inflation Fears Hit Eurozone


Goldman Sees Funds Rate Cut to 3%

Won’t someone please explain this to me?

How is it possible that the regions of the world with strong currencies — like Europe, U.K., Australia, and Canada — are having inflation problems. And yet at the same time, the nation having a record low currency — i.e., the United States and our Dollar — doesn’t seem to either inflationary pressures (At least according to official CPI data). And we seem to have little concern about further currency induced price increases.

Am I the only person who finds this incongruent?

If Goldman Sachs is correct, and the Fed does eventually cut rates to 3% — what might that mean for various dollar priced commodities like Oil & Gold?

Probably very little — if (and this is a big IF) we are in the throes of a recession. But what if the Bulls are right, and this is merely a mild mid cycle correction?

A 3% Fed rate could mean Oil at $150 and Gold at $1200.

Excerpts after the jump . . .



Inflation fears hit eurozone

By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt and Krishna Guha in Washington
FT, November 27 2007 18:02

Goldman Sees Funds Rate Cut to 3%
Greg Ip
WSJ, November 27, 2007, 9:26 am


Read More

Category: Commodities, Credit, Derivatives, Economy, Energy, Inflation

Internet Radio Slowly Closing Down

Category: Digital Media, Music