Weekend Linkfest

This was quite a week!  Up, down, all around. Its enough to give any stock jockey whiplash.
No matter, its now the weekend, and you know what that means: Linkfest!

Let’s get to it:

• This week saw me become more aggressive — over the short term (2-4 weeks) — towards an Upside Bias. This discussion explains the technical reasons why.

• Institutional Investor asks an intriguing question: Do Ex-Athletes Make Better Traders?

ECRI, the excellent Business Cycle analytical firm, has been pretty steadfast in saying they do not see a recession coming. This week, they shifted their perspective somewhat; They now ask, Industrial Slowdown Ahead?

• As the Baby Boomers age, there’s a potentially inadvertent benefit: As they shift their portfolios towards fixed income holdings, they may help keep Interest Rates low;

• Our pals at OPEC tell us the world "oversupplied" with oil;   

Lots of Real Estate related data this week, all of which conveniently fits my long term thesis about the macro economy and what’s to come over
the next few years. See also the NYT’s David Leonhardt, who advises us: Don’t Fear the Housing Bubble That Bursts; It counteracts the Declining Affordability for First-Time Home Buyers;    

• Morgan Stanley’s Andy Xie notes that China is running into some serious overcapacity;

• If you are interested in buying volatility, than you should read the FAQ on the new VIX options;

America’s younger workers losing ground on income;   

• NYU Prof Nouriel Roubini thinks the hubbub about Dubai managing our
ports misses a key point:  With the US current account deficit close to
a trillion dollars, he observes that, with no change, of
course foreigners will soon own most of the US capital stock

How General Motors Is Destroying SAAB;

• A robust rally is no excuse for lazy portfolio management. That’s why you should Enjoy the Rally but Cull the Herd (if no RM sub, see this:  Get Darwinian on Your Portfolio!); After that column ran, a friend sent me "Darwinian Investing;"   

• The Motley Fools (remember them?) asks:  Is Shorting Stocks Foolish?

• If you like Ambrose Bierce’s Devil’s Dictionary, then you will definitely enjoy John Dorfman’s Stock Market Dictionary Via the Devil’s Tongue.

• Econbrowser’s Menzie Chinn asks a very interesting question: Where Do All Those Economic Numbers Come From?

• There’s now a new commodities ETF thats useful as a hedging tool;

• In case you didn’t know, Time is an abstract concept that doesn’t
actually exist out of our subjective experiences: There is no Time out of mind;

The Top-10-strangest-ipod-accessories;

• David Pogue offers up a hilarious satire of the Dell experience: How to Survive a Tech Support Call.  Not surprisingly, Dell was unhappy about this;

• Ray Kurzweil ‘s 674 page tome, The Singularity Is Near,  is one of those talked about but hardly read books;  To his publisher’s credit, he’s posted alot of the key parts on line

• I’ve been enjoying Naked Economics  (its not what you think);   

• One of my favorite local radio stations is WFMU,
a Freeform station where management gives the DJ complete control over
program content. They are the anti-Clearchannel, and their Beware of the Blog is interesting for music fans. The downloadable MP3s are full of wild stuff.

• I’ve mentioned Jack Johnson in this space before; His new soundtrack to the Curious George animated filmSing-A-Longs & Lullabies — has become a surprise hit. Adult parents and their young kids both like it!

• Wired mag on How Digital Animation Conquered Hollywood;

• And what is very likely the funniest thing you will read all weekend, here’s What happens when you Stun Gun yourself. Its worth reading (again and again);


Anytime I travel, I spend most of the next week digging out from a
weeks worth of emails, voice mail, and research I’ve fallen behind
with. Returning from Silicon Valley and SF was no different, and so I was buried this week  — so those of you who emailed me recently, please bear with me.

But I wanted to thank everyone who sent tourist and restaurant suggestions; I have half a dozen photos posted here, and should have alot more up before the weekend is over . . .

Category: Weblogs

Radio Economics: The Greenspan Era

Category: Federal Reserve, Inflation, Investing, Markets

New Column up at Real Money (03/03/06)

Category: Trading

You know you are a Permabull when…

Category: Psychology

Read it here first: Rebates Suck

Category: Financial Press, Retail

Real Estate Round Up

This past week saw a lot of Real Estate related data, all of which fits our long term thesis about the macro economy and what’s to come over the next few years.

For those of you who may be newer to the site, we have been dicussing this for quite a while: starting in December 2004, we noted how Real Estate was a prime driver of the economy, and in Spring 2005, how new hiring was overly reliant on the Real Estate Sector; in August 2005, we called that Housing was beginning to show signs of cooling, and that this would eventually wreak havoc on consumer spending. In the Fall 2005, we noted how dependent GDP had become on Mortgage Equity extraction. You can find all of these by using the site search function, right sidebar.

Now as  of March 2006, most of these concepts have become widely recognized and (mostly) accepted — but when they were first introduced here, there was no small amount of incredulity and pushback surrounding them.

Looking forward, I see rates rising, housing cooling further, the consumer cutting back, and the stimulus driven economy slowing, if not slipping into an outright recession.

On to the round up:

Existing Home Sales Slip 5th Consec Month

Home Foreclosure Surge

Home Prices Decellerate

Supply Up, New Homes Sales Down

New Homes Sales: 4th Drop in 6 months

• And the most ironic piece of all, The WSJ’s Greg Ip Discovers Data Manipulation

There’s more all over the web if you want to surf, but that’s the main gist of it.


UPDATE March 5, 2006 4:44pm

The NYT’s Sunday Magazine is all about Real Estate

Go to Introduction: The For-Sale Society

See the Sunday Times Mag TOC after the jump . . .


Read More

Category: Real Estate

Stock Market Dictionary Via the Devil’s Tongue

Category: Markets

Bear Stearns’ Trahan Gets Religon

Category: Markets

Why the Short Term Upside Bias?

Category: Investing, Technical Analysis, Trading

Fundamentally Speaking . . .

Category: Earnings, Economy, Federal Reserve, Inflation, Psychology, Real Estate