I’m excited about a couple of new features we are rolling out over the next few weeks. We already discussed the upcoming blog changes. There are two new ideas in particular which will be of interest to regular readers.
First up will be (for lack of a better phrase) Blog Spotlight. I’ve selected about 15 other blogs that I find to be very high quality; You may (or may not) be familiar with them. I’ve linked to most of them here at one time or another.
Twice a week, we will be highlighting a commentary from one of these blog authors. The info will be either original content or published here or an older but overlooked post. The idea is to generate some exposure for some worthy blogs and their writers.
If things go as planned, we will likely have guest posts on Tuesday and Thursday evenings, at about 7pm. We alread have 2 new posts set to go tonite and Thursday.
The third new feature will roll out next Wednesday (10/11), and is inspired by a clever WSJ online feature. You’ll have to come back next week to see what is is . . .
"We do expect an adjustment in home prices to last several months, as we work through a buildup in the inventory of homes on the market. …This is the price correction we’ve been expecting — with sales stabilizing, we should go back to positive price growth early next year."
– David Lereah, economist, National Association of Realtors
The New York Times, September 2006
I am out of pocket most of today, but I wanted to reference something of Doug Kass’s from some time ago. Doug
discusses the details of his debate with NAR’s chief economist last
year (CNBC’s "The Real Estate Boom") and what it might mean going
"Back in April 2005 (on the CNBC special), Lereah and the managements of Hovnavian (HOV) , Prudential Realty and LendingTree were fully convinced (you might say glib) that the housing market was destined for a long boom. They saw a new paradigm of uninterrupted, noncyclical growth. One month later, Lereah was quoted as saying, "We simply don’t have enough homes on the market to meet demand."
Forgive my preoccupation with the housing markets, but it has had a disproportionate role in economic growth since 2000 (and maybe before). This merits a continued discussion as to the possible slope of the decline, and the nature of the inevitable recovery. The housing cycle, among other variables, is a key influence on aggregate economic activity.
I expect a hard landing, and I have roughly quantified my expectations as to when the housing market will bottom (2009). It is folly to think that an unprecedented rise in home prices (in real and nominal terms) will be over in relatively short order. Yet this has been suggested by Lereah and others.