Why Folly?

Several emailers have asked if this week’s Apprenticed Investor column was in response to the March 29th Bear call.

The short answer is no; I’ve been thinking about this issue ever since I was invited to participate in a a major publication’s "Year-in-preview" back in 2003. I proposed doing "counter-programming;" Running a column looking at how poor most forecasters do a year out, dissecting their predicting track records, and more stuff like that.

Their answer was a polite a "Um, no thanks, we sell a lot of advertising in that double issue — but do you want to particpate anyway?"

My answer was "Sure, why not."

The longer answer:  first off, I stand by that March 29th Bear call — it was pretty good. The Dow pulled back to 10,000 (from nearly 10,800) and the Nazz fell from 2020 to 1890, a 6.5% drop.

I’ve had MUCH worse forecasts than that one — this time, we
didn’t go as low as I thought we possiblym might. (10,00 — I was looking for 9800, then possibly 9000). 

Worst case scenario: I was out of the market during an ugly sell off. And since reversing myself a few weeks ago, my entry is net positive.  

If thats my worst call, I can live with it!

Actually, I thought last July 27th’s (04) Buy call was worse (it was way too early) — we
dropped hard another 2 weeks — I only got bailed out by a very
powerfull market surge.

I also said short GOOG at 185 on Power Lunch late March ’05 — but as always, there was an escape hatch — it included the stop loss to cover at 200 and go long.

Its forgiveable to be wrong; Its unforgiveable to STAY wrong . . .

Category: Financial Press

Apprenticed Investor: The Folly of Forecasting

Category: Financial Press, Investing

“Its different this time.”

Category: Economy, Fixed Income/Interest Rates

More fun with Google

Category: Weblogs

Your world with Neil Cavuto: (6/07/05)

Category: Media

limit CD burning: Give me more excuses not to buy CDs

Category: Music

You Don’t Know Jack (or, Radio Tries the Shuffle Button)

Category: Finance, Music

Alternative Investments: Antique Autos

Here’s an alternative investment: finely wrought and meticulously maintained sheet metal. The Old Westbury Garden Antique Auto Show 1957 Buick 88 There were over 400 autos here, so I limited my photo taking to only 100 cars; My interests tend towards the 1940s and 1950s era designs. Be forewarned — this is a giant time…Read More

Category: Investing

Anticipating the Dominant Stories

Category: Investing, Markets, Psychology

Chart of the Week: 10 Year Yield (Post-Crash) vs Japan

Category: Fixed Income/Interest Rates, Psychology