Conviction, Sentiment, and Market Moving Rumors

Rev Shark and I have disagreed on the Sentiment Question — are there
too many Bears, or too many Bulls?
— several times over the past few
months. However, I am starting to come around to his position that
market participants are becoming on average fairly dour.

Whether this is a change in the market, or a change in me, I cannot say.
And any conclusions drawn in August are suspect, given the ultra-light
volume — at 3pm, less than a billion shares changed hands on the the
NYSE — and the 3rd string rookies manning the terminals.

But despite all that, one really has to marvel over the lack of conviction today. After the dissappointing (but not unexpected) housing data came out today, the market seemed to falter a bit, but then it recovered.

It wasn’t until CNBC announced the Bloomberg headline of an Iranian nuclear breakthrough (See this story at TSCM) that markets seem to have stumbled more significantly.

Now, I dont ‘believe a word of that, and I assume most others don’t
either. If many people did, then the market would be selling off much
harder than it is.

But I am surprised at the ready willingness to dump stocks on so flimsy
an announcement by the Iranians the day AFTER their UN deadline passed.
Its exactly the sort of thing you would expect to hear from them.

The fast triggered response is pretty widespread, with up/down volume
– what little there actually is — rather negative. So while I want to
be cautios about reading too much into anything this (and next) week, I
still find the lack of conviction rather surprising.

Maybe Rev is right after all . . .


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