So I am heartened when I see someone I respect come to pretty much the exact same conclusion.
Run-don’t-walk to the Northern Trust commentary by Paul Kasriel today:
"Wesbury argues that the consensus forecast of professional (and I use the term advisedly) economists is more accurate than that of the lay public. That’s kind of like saying that German shepherds are smarter than German shorthaired pointers. That may be true, but in an absolute sense, neither is very bright. To argue that the economy is not in danger of slipping into a recession, as the lay public believes, because the consensus forecast of economists does not call for one is to ignore history. How many times has the consensus forecast of economists called for a recession? Although the lay public might have predicted eight out of the past four recessions, to paraphrase Samuelson, at least it has predicted some recessions. I am not aware of the consensus of economists’ forecasts ever predicting a recession. To Wesbury’s credit, he was one of only a handful of economists who predicted the last recession. (See, I’m fair and balanced.) The consensus did not." (emphasis added)
And, I love the title: You Know Things Are Bad When The WSJ Trots Out Malpass and Wesbury In The Same Week
Go read the whole piece . . .
You Know Things Are Bad When The WSJ Trots Out Malpass and Wesbury In The Same Week
Northern Trust Global Economic Research, August 9, 2007