When Does the Fed Cut With the Dow at or near Record Highs?

That’s been the question I’ve wondered about for the past few weeks. A large portion of the Bullish thesis is based on the Fed cutting — despite the Dow being at 52 week and all time highs.

I asked Mike Panzner to whip up one of his excellent charts on the subject, and here’s what he came up with:

Over the past 35 years, there have been three occasions when the Fed has begun to ease with the Dow near a 52-week high — will we soon see a fourth?

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts When Dow is Near High
click for larger chart


***Date and amount of 1st cut***  ***Date and value of 52-week high***   
  1/16/81   20.000% -> 16.000%            1/6/81   1004.69
   6/5/89    9.750% ->  9.625%              6/2/89   2516.90
   7/6/95    6.000% ->  5.75%                6/22/95   4589.64

Category: Economy, Federal Reserve, Markets

Zero Sum Game (ZSG)

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Taxes and Policy, Wages & Income

Blog Spotlight: Capital Chronicle

Another edition of our new series:  Blog Spotlight.

We put together a short list of excellent but somewhat overlooked
blog that deserves a greater audience. Expect to see a post from a
different featured blogger here every Tuesday and Thursday evening,
around 7pm.

Next up in our Blogger Spotlight: RJH Adams (known as Rawdon) of Capital Chronicle. Rawdon was raised in a tiny emerging economy, and his professional life began as a dogsbody at the UK’s economics and finance ministry, HM Treasury. He subsequently moved to the finance functions of multinationals Xerox (UK) and General Electric (France) learning from the inside what making quarterly numbers really involves. In 2000 he left and co-founded an investment vehicle. He lives in the French Alps splitting most of his time between raising three small occasionally charming children and reading about economic development and investment."


Today’s focus commentary looks at:

How good is the Baltic Dry Index as a proxy for global economic activity?                        

Conclusion: Still worth looking at – but with a proviso since 2006.

China moves in 2006 to being a consistent net exporter of steel its
influence over an important driver of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) – iron
ore for steel production – grows. But China’s massive growth in steel
output has come in large part though government intervention. This, to
some degree, is distorting the underlying freight rate picture.

what degree is key. The level and volatility of the BDI is influenced
not only by total commodity demand but also by fuel costs, seasonality,
fleet numbers, route bottlenecks and sentiment. These additional
factors should temper conclusions about the relevance of China’s steel
activities on the level of the BDI.

BDI has in the past been helpful to assessing global economic activity.
It is, after all, a reflection of real prices paid to ship production
inputs across the globe. Since March this year the index has been on a
tear, rising 70%, or 1,750 points.

Read More

Category: Blog Spotlight

Media Appearance: Kudlow & Company (10/10/06)

Category: Media

How Cheap is the Dow?

Category: Earnings, Economy, Investing, Markets, Psychology

Household versus Establishment Surveys, part 42

Category: Data Analysis, Economy, Employment

Google Buys YouTube — for Free

Category: Corporate Management, Markets, Technology

Resilience or Complacency?

Category: RR&A

Absurdly Large BLS Revisions, part II

Category: Data Analysis, Employment

Survey Says: Americans Top Worry? Rising prices

Category: Inflation