Some Headlines of Interest

I’m mostly out of pocket today (holidays and all that), but a quick look at the papers reveals that the US is still on target for a decaying economy and eventual hard landing:

Slowing Is Seen in Housing Prices in Hot Markets
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/realestate/04reals.html
sigh . . . old news

Bankruptcy Filings Soar As Tougher Law Nears   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB112839161016359261.html
This one is going to be nasty

Big S.U.V.’s Lag in Sales, Hindered by Gas Cost  http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/automobiles/04auto.html

In September, industrywide sales of large S.U.V.’s were down 43 percent from a year earlier.  
(See also: Sales of SUVs Fall Sharply
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB112810411178056944.html

Oil Producers Gain Global Clout From Big Windfall http://online.wsj.com/article/SB112838919128959188.html
There’s a security issue, here, as well as an economic one.

Home Builders’ Stock Sales: Diversifying or Bailing Out?    http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/04/business/04builders.html

A friend observes: Don’t you know why the bigwigs are blowing out in size? Simple: Because they think the stock is gonna’ trade higher.
(Ha!)

I have a few words here: 
•  If housing slumps, how safe are you?   
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9582621/
Housing now infects everything 

Lastly, PIMco’s Bill Gross opines that "If real housing prices decline in the U.S. in 2006 or 2007, a recession is nearly inevitable."
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/IO/2005/IO+October+2005.htm

I am all too well aware of my own biases and selective perception; As of now, this remains a minority viewpoint. By the time it becomes the dominant meme, I will (hopefully) be looking to go long . . .

 

Have an informed, happy and healthy New Year!

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