Even More LEI silliness

An emailer (who insists on anonymity) asks: "Aren’t you done Bitch-slapping the Conference Board yet?"

Umm, no.

We’ve addressed this twice recently. Today, I’m going to hand the micropohone over to Bob Bronson, who makes an extremely compelling argument that we haven’t highlighted the utter dishonest foolishness of what the Conference Board  has wrought enough:

Without the revision eliminating the bearish impact of
a narrowing yield curve the Conference Board’s composite of leading economic indicators would have been down in July, rather than up a meager
0.1%.

But even with this revision, the other five leading economic indicators, which are coincident with the stock market, are below their highs oflast year and/or this year.  Most significantly, they are rolling over again,as illustrated in the chart below.

Here’s the chart:

click for enormously large chart

Leading_six_types_monthly_economic_indic

graphic courtesy of Bronson Capital Markets Research


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Sources:
The Conference Board Removed the Bearish Impact of the Flattening Yield Curve From Their Leading Economic Indicators, But…
Bob Bronson
Bronson Capital Markets Research, August 2, 2005
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/bronson/2005/0802.html

U.S. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND RELATED COMPOSITE INDEXES FOR JUNE 2005
The Conference Board U.S. Business Cycle Indicators, 10:00 A.M. ET, THURSDAY, JULY 21, 2005
Conference Board Changes to LEI  (PDF)
http://www.conference-board.org/economics/bci/RevisionsLEI_2005.pdf

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The Future of the Music Industry

Music industry insider Bob Lefsetz gives us brief history of the Music Business, and a fascinating vision of what the future of the industry might look like:

"What if it’s over.  What if everything this business was built upon, everything we know, is disappearing.

Well, this business WAS built upon music.  But that was a long time ago. 

That was before everybody got greedy.  Before it was demonstrated how much MONEY there was in the music business.

Oh, there’s always been a music business.  Back to the days when cavemen were banging on rocks and people sat around and listened.  But the sixties were different.  We had recorded music, and a large ready audience, i.e. baby boomers, with the money and wherewithal to buy it.

Before the sixties the single was the dominant format.  First 78s, then 45s.  You can’t make much money selling singles.  Just ask the labels how profitable iTunes is.  And, there wasn’t much money.  There was a depression.  And then a war.  But when rock and roll hit, when the baby boomers came of age, when the Beatles turned it into an album format, purveyors started COINING DOUGH!

You HAD to have the Beatle album.

And the Beatles and the San Francisco sound begat concert venues.  And press to cover the scene.  And suddenly, music was the driver, the hippest art form extant.

And the MONEY!

First there were the records.  Then, Led Zeppelin changed the live deal.  To 90/10.  And everybody wanted to SEE Led Zeppelin.  There was no venue too big, they could sell every seat of a stadium.

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