Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson had some interesting comments on the Housing Market reversal. He said he hoped declines in housing prices had been largely offset for
Americans by higher stock prices:
"We had a retail housing market in this country that was growing at an
unsustainable rate for a number of years, so we had to make that transition
from…unsustainable growth to a more sustainable rate," he said in a radio
interview by WTMJ Milwaukee.
"There’s been a correction, a significant correction," he said. "I know the
individual homeowner is feeling this concern as we have the correction.
Hopefully some of that impact has been offset by an equity market that has added
a trillion dollars of value and impacted positively peoples’ 401K, their savings
and other things."
This is a bit of wishful thinking on Paulson’s part (perhaps cheerleading is part of the job description of his Office). When we look at the most recent studies, we learn stocks gains do not remotely come close to impacting the average family the way Home price do.
There are numerous reasons for this, but the big ones are "percentage of net worth" and the wealth effect.
How much does housing values boost the wealth effect and consumer spending relative to equities? The surprising answer: more than twice stock market wealth. That’s according to a new study by Christopher Carroll, Misuzu Otsuka and Jirka Slacalek. Their work led them to conclude that an increase in housing wealth of $100 in America eventually boosts spending by $9. A similar increase in stock market wealth produces less than half the result — only $4 more spending.
That makes sense, when you consider that for most families, their homes are their single biggest asset. But the note that the distribution between the two is very different — 68.5% of Americans
live in their own homes (and some recent data puts this as high as 70%). While ownership of stocks is widespread — studies put market participation at near 50% of all Americans — for the typical family, they have a rather small percentage of their net worth in equities. Indeed, in most cases, stocks are only their second or third largest asset.
And while lots of people do own publicly traded issues, the average account was small — only
$35k or $24,300, according to a Federal Reserve study earlier this year. Whether that is plus or minus a 10 or 20 percentage points has far less of an impact on the wealth effect than price appreciation in homes.
Why? The signficance of home prices that have doubled over the past 7 years is in the mortgage equity withdrawal that accompanied these asset price rises. MEW has fueled a massive spending binge, and has allowed "lifestyle changes." That’s the wealth effect at work.
There is a small paradox regarding this distribution of equity ownership. The top 1% of the country owns about 50% of all property in the U.S., including equities. Ironically, the folks who are most
aggravated about this are not the poor (who pretty much have accepted their lot in life) but rather, the bottom of the top percent. A recent article in Fortune discussed this phenomena: "America’s income gap is arguably less likely to spark a retro fight
between proletarians and capitalists than a war between what I call the
"lower upper class" and the ultrarich."
"Here’s my outlandish theory: that economic resentment at the bottom of the top 1 percent of America’s income distribution is the new wild card in public life. Ordinary workers won’t rise up against ultras because they take it as given that "the rich get richer."
But the hopes and dreams of today’s educated class are based on the idea that market capitalism is a meritocracy. The unreachable success of the superrich shreds those dreams.
"I’ve seen it in my research," says pollster Doug Schoen, who counsels Michael Bloomberg and Hillary Clinton, among others. "If you look at the lower part of the upper class or the upper part of the upper middle class, there’s a great deal of frustration. These are people who assumed that their hard work and conventional ‘success’ would leave them with no worries. It’s the type of rumbling that could lead to political volatility."
Lower uppers are professionals who by dint of schooling, hard work and luck are living better than 99 percent of the humans who have ever walked the planet. They’re also people who can’t help but notice how many folks with credentials like theirs are living in Gatsby-esque splendor they’ll never enjoy.
But I digress. In response to the hopefulness of Hank Paulson — the wealthiest Treasury Secretary in history, he is clearly an Upper Upper — the wealth effect from a rising equity market will replace some of the lost wealth effect from a falling housing market. But dollar for dollar, it will be less than half as much. And, it will be far less widely distributed than the gains from home price appreciation.
One would hope that the Treasury Secretary — even one who is an Upper Upper — would be up-to-date on the latest studies on wealth effects.
US’s Paulson says rising stocks offset house price drop
Reuters, Tue Oct 24, 2006 10:01am ET
Revolt of the fairly rich
Fortune, October 25 2006: 8:43 AM EDT
Changes in U.S. Family Finances:
Evidence from the 2001 and 2004 Survey of
Brian K. Bucks, Arthur B. Kennickell, and Kevin B.
Federal Reserve Board, Division of Research and Statistics
Another edition of our new series: Blog Spotlight.
We put together a short list of excellent but somewhat overlooked
blog that deserves a greater audience. Expect to see a post from a
different featured blogger here every Tuesday and Thursday evening,
Up next in our Blogger Spotlight: Michael Shedlock and Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis. Mike is one of the editors of The Survival Report, covering stocks and the economy. He also writes for the Daily Reckoning, and co-edits Whiskey & Gunpowder. He also runs stock boards on the Motley Fool, Silicon Investor, and TheMarketTraders. He is an avid photographer, when not writing about stocks or the economy, with over 80 magazine and book covers to his credit.
Earnings, Confidence, and Boxes
reported third-quarter profit rose 2
percent, less than analysts expected, as demand for home loans slumped. The
company’s shares surged higher on plans to lay off more than 2,500 employees
and buy back up to $2.5 billion of stock, and as higher profits in other units,
including Countrywide Bank, cushioned the mortgage decline.
It seems the street just can’t get enough bad news. CFC
rallied 5% as investors warmly welcomed news of more layoffs. CFC is already
talking about the 2008
recovery. It’s never too early to do that. “By 2008, surviving players will be positioned for ‘one hell of a year’”
said CEO Angelo Mozilo.
Ford lost $5.8 billion, or $3.08 per share, during the 3rd
quarter this year. Sales fell 10% to $36.7 billion. Excluding special charges,
Ford posted a loss from continuing operations of $1.2 billion or 62 cents per
share. Last year during the same period, Ford posted a net loss of $284
million, or 15 cents per share. Ford has now lost $7.2 billion for the year. 3Q
output was down 11% vs. 17% drop in overall North American sales and a 25% drop
in F-series pickups. The company plans
4Q North American output cuts of 21%.
Ford called those results “clearly
unacceptable”. Shares of Ford are also up since the announcement. Yes those
results are “unacceptable” but what is Ford doing about it? Ford’s “Way
Forward” plan, calls for eliminating 44,000 hourly and salaried jobs, closing 16 factories and making other
changes by 2012. Part of the “Way Forward” is to Kill Taurus and
along with it a lot of jobs at US assembly plants.
Category: Blog Spotlight