Squawk Box

squawkbox128x88CNBC

So, today is the big day! (Gotta remember to look into the camera).

Here’s some of the charts we may be discussing this morning . . .

Recovery & Jobs versus Prior Cycles
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jobs_att23183
via Chart of the Day

Corporate Profits versus Compensation
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corp_profits_vs_natl_income
Source: National Economic Trends, Federal Bank of St. Louis

Dow Industrials: Election Year Cycles
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ndr_election_year_patterns
Chart courtesy of Ned Davis Research

Should be interesting

Thanks to all the well wishers who wrote in . . .

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Projected Electoral College Vote: Swing States, 8/23/04

wsj_format_logo

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info-battleground04-0823map
Chart courtesy of WSJ

Yet another fascinating poll, courtesy of WSJ. The recent SBVFT commercials seemed to have had an impact nationally, narrowing the gap between the challenger and the incumbent. According to this most recent WSJ/Zogby poll, conducted Aug. 16-21, there seems to be little impact in the Battleground States. Kerry now leads in 14 states (up from 13 early August). President Bush leads in two states.”

Here’s the Journals take on the polling data’s internals:

The contest for the White House remains tight, according to the latest Zogby Interactive poll of likely voters in 16 battleground states. Although the map is awash in blue, with President Bush leading in only two of the battleground states, down from the three states he held three weeks ago, the results in three-quarters of the states in the survey are within the margin of error — meaning those states remain very hotly contested. Mr. Kerry holds the top spot in 14 of the 16 polled states, up from 13 in the previous poll.

Mr. Bush’s lead is outside the margin of error in one state, but it’s a key one: Ohio. Only two 20th-century presidents have been elected without carrying the Buckeye State, and no Republican has won the White House without Ohio’s support since the party was founded in 1854. Mr. Kerry has top spots outside the margin in three states: Oregon, Washington and electoral-vote rich Pennsylvania.

In addition, several states continue to switch their allegiances. The survey results were closest in Florida and Missouri, where the margins between the two candidates are less than one percentage point. Both states, with their total of 38 electoral votes, have flipped between Messrs. Bush and Kerry more than once, most recently landing in the Democratic column. Similarly, the two states Mr. Bush leads in this poll, Ohio and West Virginia, have been led by both candidates at different points in the poll series. For further analysis of how these results could play out in the Electoral College, view this article

RNC in NY in one week . . .

Sources:
Battlegrounds States Poll – August 23, 2004

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-0823print.html

Interactive version

http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html

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