S&P 500 2% Correction?

Marketbeat notes: "The market has reached a point where the word “correction” has seemingly lost all meaning — because the most marginal of declines is referred to as such. Bianco Research points out that the S&P 500 has not declined by 2% since July 13 — the second longest-period without a 2% correction since 1964. “Only the 1995 period saw a longer string of days without a 2% correction,” they write, noting that a 2% decline really isn’t a correction in the first place, just noise."

Prior to yesterday’s light volume holiday volume rally, in December, the SPX had sagged about 1.14%.


Jim Bianco observes: “As the table above shows, the S&P 500 has not declined 2% since July 13 (currently we are seeing the third decline of more than 1% during this period). This string of 162 (actual) days is the second longest period of no 2% correction since 1964. Only the 1995 period saw a longer string of days without a 2% correction.”   

A further interesting observation via Bill King: The current rally is the weakest one in the above table.

Let’s consider the context of each 7 rallys: The 1928 rally saw its first 2% correction late in a 10 year Bull move, coming 10 months before the peak; The rallies in the ’50s and ’60s (1953, ’58, ’61 and ’64) were in the middle of the post WWII secular bull market;  The 1994-95 move was also mid-secular Bull run, also benefitting from the 1995 soft landing.

How aberrational is the present run compared with these prior moves? With only 7 examples, the sample is too small to draw reliable conclusions. But it does raise some very interesting questions:

-Is this long non-corrective phase signaling a 1995-type soft landing? or

-Are we in the middle of a secular bull market, after only 3 years of a secular Bear market (2000-03)? or

-If this is the weakest such rally, might it have further to run? or 

-Is this rally (called unnatural by some) truly unusual?

I am unsure of the answers — but this data certainly raises some very interesting and curious questions . . .



Bianco Research

The King Report

Correction? We Are Not Familiar With This Phrase, ‘Correction’
David Gaffen
WSJ Marketbeat, December 26, 2006, 2:39 pm

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