The Prediction Markets Chalk Another One Up!

At the risk of starting up another controversy, I must point out that the InTrade prediction market  got this about as wrong as you possibly could:


Jackson-Guilty of AT LEAST 1 of 2 counts of administering an intoxicating agent to a minor
click for larger chart

Source: InTrade

On average, the Alcohol issue was an over 50% likelihood for nearly the entire length of the contract, but briefly dropped towards 20%  for a few weeks last month.

Jackson – Guilty of AT LEAST 1 of 7 counts alleging lewd or lascivious acts against a minor
click for larger chart

Source: InTrade


The Lewd issue started out at 40%, spend almost a year near 60%, bottomed at 35% before climbing back towards 60%.

Okay, Chris — before I say anything else, I will wait for your deconstruction of this — where and how did it go wrong, and why?


UPDATE: June 15, 2005 6:26am
Not only did the crowds get it wrong, but as the brilliant Daily Show reveals, the experts did just as poorly. (warning: hysterical video)


Category: Markets, Psychology

And, now, back to our originally scheduled show

Category: Media

Conundrum, hmmm? Boost interest rates, I must.

Category: Economy

Quote of the day

Category: Investing

“Well worth it” -Barron’s

Category: Financial Press

Sunday Link Fest!

Category: Financial Press, Weblogs

Why Investors Fail

Nice piece by BMO Nesbitt on why investors fail: “Individuals have historically underperformed the markets, earning just 2.6% vs. the S&P 500 gain of 12.2% between 1984 and the end of 2002*. Research in the U.S. has shown that this dramatic underperformance comes as a direct result of client behaviour, or more specifically, the attempt…Read More

Category: Investing, Psychology

The Global Real Estate Obsession

Category: Real Estate

Economy or Stock Market ?

Category: Economy, Investing, Markets

Net change in total liabilities

Category: Economy