The Prediction Markets Chalk Another One Up!

At the risk of starting up another controversy, I must point out that the InTrade prediction market  got this about as wrong as you possibly could:

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Jackson-Guilty of AT LEAST 1 of 2 counts of administering an intoxicating agent to a minor
click for larger chart
Jackson_intoxc

Source: InTrade

On average, the Alcohol issue was an over 50% likelihood for nearly the entire length of the contract, but briefly dropped towards 20%  for a few weeks last month.

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Jackson – Guilty of AT LEAST 1 of 7 counts alleging lewd or lascivious acts against a minor
click for larger chart
Jackson_lewd

Source: InTrade

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The Lewd issue started out at 40%, spend almost a year near 60%, bottomed at 35% before climbing back towards 60%.

Okay, Chris — before I say anything else, I will wait for your deconstruction of this — where and how did it go wrong, and why?

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UPDATE: June 15, 2005 6:26am
Not only did the crowds get it wrong, but as the brilliant Daily Show reveals, the experts did just as poorly. (warning: hysterical video)

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Category: Markets, Psychology

And, now, back to our originally scheduled show

Category: Media

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Category: Economy

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Category: Investing, Psychology

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