Good News On Federal Deficit

I haven’t taken apart these numbers yet, but at first blush, this looks like excellent news:


Graphic courtesy New York Times


My initial assumption is that corporate profits, real estate and
M&A are drivers, but thats just a guess. I’ll take a closer look
later this week. 


UPDATE JULY 10, 2006 4:00PM

A few of you have emailed me about this; Yes, I am aware of the tendency to overstate the deficit to make it appear that the deficit is not as bad as it actually is.

One of you emailed me this from Stan Collendar of the National Journal (via Brad Delong); Until i look more closely at the numbers, this will have to suffice:

BUDGET BATTLES: Wolf! (01/17/2006):

The Bush administration
held a conference call with reporters last week to say that the 2006 deficit
would be $400 billion or more. As the White House hoped, the media dutifully
reported that number. But, as it almost certainly did not want, the media also
reported that this latest Bush administration budget pronouncement should be
treated with doubt, skepticism, and perhaps even outright contempt. The reason
is that this president has a well-established history of overstating the deficit
early in the year and then taking credit when it turns out to be lower than
projected, even if it has done nothing to make that happen…

Again, I don’t do politics, I do data analysis — so I really don’t care who was the worse President, W. or Bill. What primarily interests me and the other people who frequent this site are the true indications of the underlying economy, i.e., is the Federal Deficit getting really better, or is this merely an annual bit of gamesmanship. (Please keep that in mind when commenting . . . )


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