Chart of the Week: First Q 4% Year End Performance

The S&P 500 index is up 4.38% YTD. History suggests when the market’s gain of 4%+ in Q1, it often presages double-digit moves – up or down – in the S&P 500 for the entire year.
Double Digit Full Year Gains & Losses (1956-2005)


Source:  Mike Panzner, Rabo

Since 1956, the market has gained 4% in 27 out of 49 Q1s, or 55% of the time. When that has occurred, the full-year sees a greater-than-10% rise or fall on 20 of 27 occasions (74.07%). Median double-digit gains over 12 months were +25.77%. Median losses were 13.09%.


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