Slowing Economy?

One of the things I keep hearing regarding the “Slowing Economy” is how we are in danger of slipping back into a recession.

I think this is a wrongheaded view; It presupposes that the economy was in a full blown hi speed recovery, and now – suddenly! – we’ve slowed down.

This is the residual result of the torrid 3rd quarter pace of expansion, as the full weight of the stimulus was coursing through the economy.

The reality is that the 9% (annualized) GDP rate was (and is) unsustainable. Since then, we’ve had an anemic but sustainable post bubble expansion. Blame productivity or slack in the Labor market, but quite frankly, that’s not so awful, considering.

One of the issues the markets have been grappling with (amongst other issues) is the ratcheting down of unreasonable expectations.

The economy hasn’t actually been slowing that much if you are expecting a 3–4% GDP. However, if you were waiting for 5 or 6% growth, than of course you’ve been disappointed.

Think about that as we wait for the Fed . . . That’s really why an increase isn’t such a far fetched idea. Remember, they have been saying in the past that the risks appear to be balanced — that’s hardly the language of a 6% GDP . . .

Category: Finance

Out of Range

Category: Finance


Category: Finance

Read it here first: New Jobs pay less

Category: Finance

NYSE Specialist Short Ratio

Category: Finance

Tivo Economists

Category: Finance, Web/Tech

Economists on Weak U.S. Job Growth

Category: Finance

New Jobs pay less for 57% of displaced workers

Category: Finance

Ouch! Nonfarm payrolls +32,000 jobs

Category: Finance

Presidential Polling Data Resources

Category: Politics