Cullen Roche vs Andrew Smithers on Tobin’s Q

I love this debate between the idea of Tobin’s Q-Ratio as th be all for valuation analysis. It is embodied between Smithers & Co. quoted in this scary BBRG article and Pragmatic Capitalism’s Cullen Roche.

Here is PragCap:

“Better yet, look at the number of times this ratio has been cited during the most recent bull market as a reason to exit stocks:

At least he is consistent!

Let me remind readers of the folly of Single Variable Analysis . . .

 

 

Previously:
Single vs. Multiple Variable Analysis in Market Forecasts (TBP, May 4th, 2005)

When Correlations Lie (Bloomberg View June 27, 2014)

 

 

Category: Bad Math, Data Analysis, Investing, Valuation

Residual Seasonality in GDP

Charles E. Gilbert, Norman J. Morin, Andrew D. Paciorek, and Claudia R. Sahm Residual Seasonality in GDP Federal Reserve, May 14, 2015       Real GDP growth stalled in the first quarter of this year, according to the advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). With a second year in a row of unusually weak…Read More

Category: Data Analysis, Think Tank

Secrets, Politics and Torture

Watch Secrets, Politics and Torture Tuesday, May 19 at 10 p.m. EST on PBS
and online at pbs.org/frontline.

Category: Video, War/Defense

California April Housing Sales

click for ginormous graphic Source: World Property Journal

Category: Digital Media, Real Estate

What If Something Goes Right in the Economy?

  The preoccupation with all of the things that could possibly go wrong has been a persistent characteristic of this economic recovery. It was termed recession porn in 2009. It has been a focus of websites, pundits and, of course, goldbugs. When an economist picks up the nickname “Dr. Doom,” it suggests an obsession with the negative. Recession porn…Read More

Category: Cycles, Data Analysis, Economy

10 Tuesday AM Reads

Our 2-for-Tuesday morning train reads: • Which Stock Market Is Scarier: U.S. or China? (BV) see also Don’t Fret About Tobin’s Q (Crossing Wall Street) • How likely is a recession? (And how fast is a forecast?) (FRED Blog) • The Ten Harsh Financial Commandments (Irrelevant Investor) see also Compare and Contrast (Polemics Pain) • The View from the Front Seat of the…Read More

Category: Financial Press

Biggest Retirement Mistakes People Make

The data on this is fascinating:

Many people plan on supplementing their retirement funds by working past 65, but this plan may not be as sound as it seems. Bloomberg’s Suzanne Woolley breaks down the expectations and often unfortunate truths of working through retirement.


Source: Bloomberg May 18, 2015 7:32 AM EDT

Category: Data Analysis, Investing, Video, Wages & Income

Liquidity Mismatch Helps Predict Bank Failure and Distress

Category: Credit, Think Tank

The Incomparable: Jason Snell on David Letterman’s Significance

  Click play to listen. Your browser does not support the audio element.   Source: The Incomparable    

Category: Podcast, Television, Weekend

Unsteady Footing

NA-CF826A_ECONO_16U_20150515153014
Source: WSJ

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Category: Economy, Federal Reserve