10 Wednesday PM Reads

My afternoon train reads:

• Eight Lessons From Our First Year (The Reformed Broker) see also 7 Ways to Avoid Picking a Bad Advisor (Think Advisor)
• Never let a politician or pundit give you investment advice (MarketWatch)
• The Return of the Currency Wars (Real Time Economics)
• How Often Do Stocks and Bonds Decline at the Same Time? (A Wealth of Common Sense)
• Coping with complexity  (Stumbling and Musing)
• The Changing State of States’ Economies (MacroBlog)
• The Income Chart That Explains American Politics (New Yorker)
• iPhone 6 review (The Verge) see also Reviewed: iPhone 6 is a Thin, Sexy Phone with a Killer Camera (Yahoo) and see iOS 8 Review: The Problem Solver (Re/Code)
• Here’s How to Cancel a Meeting the Right Way (Both Sides of the Table)
• Future Ennui: As we march onwards towards wearables and alerts on our wrists, we’re no longer shocked by technological progress, but rather exhausted by it. (The Atlantic)

What are you reading?


You Can’t Feed a Family With GDP

Source: The Upshot


Category: Financial Press

What Happens if the FOMC Gets Too Hawkish?

Source: Deutsche Bank Securities   Torsten Slok, chief international economist for Deutsche Bank AG, warns about the hawks on the Federal Open Market Committee getting too, well, hawkish. The flowchart above shows the different transmission mechanisms of monetary policy. Slok uses it to highlight the widening spread between investment-grade and high-yield junk bonds. If and…Read More

Category: Digital Media, Federal Reserve

California Teachers takes Harvard to School

For a long time, the fund managers at Yale’s endowment were the industry’s gold standard. Inevitably, as in so many things Ivy, this was noticed by rival Harvard. The so-called Yale Model, developed by David Swensen and his colleague Dean Takahashi, was rich with alternative investments, private equity, commodities and real estate and other items…Read More

Category: Asset Allocation, Investing, Really, really bad calls, Wages & Income

10 Wednesday AM Reads

Its FOMC day — perhaps the first one in a long time where the outcome is not preordained. Until 2pm, some reads to keep you informed and entertained: • A simple way to beat the market with stock splits (MarketWatch) • The Fed can takes its time, if it wants to (FT Alphaville) see also 5…Read More

Category: Financial Press

Business Cycle Index

Interesting trio of charts from Russell showing the Business Cycle Index (BCI).

The goal of the BCI is to forecast the strength of economic expansion or recession in the coming months, along with forecasts for other prominent economic measures. How well it does that is a subject of debate.

Inputs to the model include non-farm payroll, core inflation (without food and energy), the slope of the yield curve, and the yield spreads between Aaa and Baa corporate bonds and between commercial paper and Treasury bills. A different choice of financial and macroeconomic data would affect the resulting business cycle index and forecasts.




Read More

Category: Cycles, Economy

10 Tuesday PM Reads

My afternoon train reads: • Hilsenrath: Fed Chief Yellen Seeks Interest-Rate Consensus (WSJ) see also As Bond-Buying Ends, Yellen Now Will Chart Course for Federal Reserve (NYT) • Cathy O’Neil on Math, Wall St and Occupy Wall Street: EconTalk Episode with Cathy O’Neil hosted by Russ Roberts (Library of Economics and Liberty) • Avoid Being An…Read More

Category: Financial Press

Liquidating Lehman

Source: WSJ   I’ve been paying attention to so many other stories that I almost let the anniversary of the Lehman Brothers’ Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing (it was six years to-the-day yesterday) slip by unnoticed. That would be a shame.   Continues here      

Category: Corporate Management, Legal

Expensive Cities

How Far Your Paycheck Goes, In 356 U.S. Cities Source: NPR via Know More

Category: Digital Media, Real Estate

CalPERS to Hedge Funds: Buh-Bye

This was the big news yesterday out of California: The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (Calpers) today announced that it will eliminate its hedge fund program, known internally as the Absolute Return Strategies (ARS) program, as part of an ongoing effort to reduce complexity and costs in its investment program. The staff recommendation, supported by…Read More

Category: Hedge Funds, Investing, Really, really bad calls

10 Tuesday AM Reads

Happy Fed Day! Or should we say: Happy start to the-two day FOMC meeting that will drive trading volumes even lower as we await the inevitable continuation of the taper. Oh, and here are our morning reads: • Record S&P 500 Masks 47% of Nasdaq Mired in Bear Market (Bloomberg) see also A Closer Look…Read More

Category: Financial Press