Tuesday Reads

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 17th, 2009, 4:00PM

Some interesting reads:

Recovery Can Only Go So Far Without Jobs (Market Talk)

• Paul Farrell: Wall Street’s 2012 meltdown sweepstakes (Marketwatch)

Lessons from the crisis: Re-educate the geeks (Reuters)   British quant seeks to reform financial risk-takers

America’s Newest Land Baron: FDIC (WSJ)

Not So Pretty Numbers And The New Bubble Logic (Market Talk)

6 REASONS RICHARD RUSSELL WANTS TO OWN GOLD (Pragmatic Capitalist)

Why the Crisis Isn’t Going Away (Counterpunch)

Inflation Faces an Uphill Climb (WSJ)

About Half in U.S. Would Pay for Online News, Study Finds (NYT)

45% Now Rate Obama’s Economic Performance As Poor (Rasmussan)

Take Me Back to Constantinople (FR): Advice for the US from the Byzantine Empire

• GE Goes for Backyard Wind Power: Making A Big Deal of Small Wind

Oxford Word of the Year 2009: Unfriend

What are you reading?

Who Pays the Taxes in the USA ?

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 17th, 2009, 2:00PM

Nice infoporn  via Mint, showing the breakdown by income level. To put this into context, as of 2007, the median annual household income rose 1.3% to $50,233.00 according to the Census Bureau.

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click for larger graphic
MINT-TAXES-R2

Is Gold Really in a Bubble?

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 17th, 2009, 12:00PM

David Rosenberg asks the question: Is Gold a bubble?

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Gold Prices Relative to the S&P 500 (ratio)

click for bigger chart
gold spx ratio

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I am not sure the above chart is determinative, but it sure is interesting . . .

Roger Lowenstein on Financial Reform

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 17th, 2009, 10:30AM

Roger Lowenstein, author of When Genius Failed and Origins of the Crash, is working on a new book on the bailouts and meltdown.

In his most recent Bloomberg column, Lowenstein looks at the current spate of flailing financial reforms. He notes that most of the proposed fixes are “incremental changes that don’t seem likely to prevent a future bubble.”

Here is his down and dirty overview of what caused the crisis; I cannot say his views differ from mine very much:

The crash exposed six serious problems:

No. 1: Mortgage regulation was too lax and in some cases nonexistent.

No. 2: Capital requirements for banks were too low.

No. 3: Trading in derivatives such as credit default swaps posed giant, unseen risks.

No. 4: Credit ratings on structured securities such as collateralized-debt obligations were deeply flawed.

No. 5: Bankers were moved to take on risk by excessive pay packages.

No. 6: The government’s response to the crash also created, or exacerbated, moral hazard. Markets now expect that big banks won’t be allowed to fail, weakening the incentives of investors to discipline big banks and keep them from piling up too many risky assets again. It’s time to end too big to fail by making it less palatable for banks to remain big.

Just about right . . .

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Source:
Banking Fix Made Easy With Six Simple Steps
Roger Lowenstein
Bloomberg, Nov. 17 2009
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=ag6XVCM_C.j4

What To Do in Berlin?

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 17th, 2009, 9:50AM

Wholly unrelated to the prior post (US Job Hunters Look Overseas) I am leaving this evening for Berlin, to speak at a CityWire Conference .

I’m flying back Friday, but over the course of 3 days, I will have one morning, one afternoon and one evening free.

What’s fun to do in Berlin?

US Job Hunters Look Overseas

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 17th, 2009, 5:00AM

This is a somewhat pitiful development:

“Here’s one way to deal with the brutal U.S. job market: Leave the country.

With the nation’s unemployment rate at a 26-year-high of 10.2%, more Americans are hunting for, and landing, work overseas, according to staffing companies and executive search firms.

Fifty-four percent of executives said they’d be likely or highly likely to accept a foreign post, according to a survey of 114 executives Friday by talent management company Korn/Ferry. Just 37% of those surveyed in 2005 said they’d go abroad.

The hottest international job markets include India, China, Brazil, Dubai and Singapore, recruiters say. International companies are largely seeking candidates in engineering, computer technology, manufacturing, investment banking and consulting.” (emphasis added)

That is an astounding change in attitude . . .

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Source:
More U.S. job hunters look for work in other countries
Paul Davidson
USA TODAY, November 16th, 2009
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2009-11-16-jobsabroad16_ST_N.htm

Special Inspector General: NY Fed Screwed Up AIG Bailout

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 16th, 2009, 8:36PM

No surprise here: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in a desperate headlong rush to rescue American International Group, screwed the pooch. Despite holding all of the cards, cash and power, they still managed to manuver themselves into a corner with “little negotiating room.”

So says the most recent audit from the Office of the Special Inspector General (SIG) for the TARP program (full embed here) :

“SIGTARP concludes that: (1) the original terms of federal assistance to AIG, including the high interest rate it adopted from the private bank’s initial term sheet, inadequately addressed AIG’s long term liquidity concerns, thus requiring further Government support; (2) FRBNY’s negotiating strategy to pursue concessions from counterparties offered little opportunity for success, even in light of the willingness of one counterparty to agree to concessions; (3) the structure and effect of FRBNY’s assistance to AIG, both initially through loans to AIG, and through asset purchases in connection with Maiden Lane III effectively transferred tens of billions of dollars of cash from the Government to AIG’s counterparties, even though senior policy makers contend that assistance to AIG’s counterparties was not a relevant consideration in fashioning the assistance to AIG; and (4) while FRBNY may eventually be made whole on its loan to Maiden Lane III, it is difficult to assess the true costs of the Federal
Reserve’s actions until there is more clarity as to AIG’s ability to repay all of its assistance from the Government.  SIGTARP also draws lessons that should be learned regarding the importance of transparency andratings agencies had on the AIG bailout.”

In other words, the deal that was cut in November 2008 with AIGs counter-party banks resulted in those banks being paid off in full for high risk credit-market bets.

Had AIG gone bankrupt, these firms would have recieved pennies on the dollar.  The banks that benefited the most included Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Merrill Lynch and large French banks Société Générale and Calyon. (See table below)

The New York Fed said its goal was to “prevent a system-wide collapse” and not obtain the best deal possible. So they got played for patsies.

Here’s the WSJ:

The “SIGTARP” audit provides a window into a bailout effort that has been shrouded by a lack of disclosure — acknowledged in the report — and questions over why the U.S. government in effect funneled tens of billions of dollars to U.S. and European banks that were AIG’s trading partners.

In November 2008, less than two months after the New York Fed first bailed out AIG with an $85 billion credit line, the government restructured its aid to AIG as the insurer’s cash needs mounted amid the market downturn. The revamped package included a company called Maiden Lane III buying complex mortgage-linked securities from U.S. and European banks to cancel insurance contracts that AIG’s financial–products division had written on the securities. The banks were effectively paid par, or 100 cents on the dollar, for those securities, which had declined significantly in value due to rising home-loan defaults.

The report acknowledged challenges the regulators faced, including insistence by most of the banks and a French bank regulator that they be paid in full. But the report said the “refusal” of the Federal Reserve and New York Fed “to use their considerable leverage,” in negotiations with the trading partners “made the possibility of obtaining concessions from those counterparties extremely remote.”

Its simply embarrassing and pathetic . . .

Counterparty payments

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Sources:
FACTORS AFFECTING EFFORTS TO LIMIT PAYMENTS TO AIG COUNTERPARTIES
SIGTARP-10-003
NOVEMBER 17, 200
http://bit.ly/49y3iI

SIGTARP Audit
http://www.sigtarp.gov/audits.shtml

Audit Is Critical of N.Y. Fed in AIG Bailout
SERENA NG and CARRICK MOLLENKAM
WSJ, NOVEMBER 16, 2009
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704431804574540290325376348.html

Monday Reading

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 16th, 2009, 4:30PM

Some interesting stories to start off your week:

China has now become the biggest risk to the world economy (Telegraph)

Hedgies Unhinged (New York Magazine)

Gold prices are a dead giveaway (Independent)

The Debt Economy (James Surowiecki)

Coming Soon: Jobs! (Slate)

Gretchen Morganson: Home Builders (You Heard That Right) Get a Gift

Water on the Moon (NASA)

Belle de Jour revealed as research scientist (Times of London)  “She has been writing a novel, and the Belle blog will “continue for a bit — I’d like her to have happy ending”.” (I assume the pun was unintentional)

• Video: Leopard Seal teaches photographer how to hunt penguins (National Geographic)


What are you reading?

Hedgies Unhinged     http://nymag.com/news/intelligencer/62055/

Legalizing and Taxing Marijuana

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 16th, 2009, 2:30PM

I expect over the next few years, we will hear all manner of suggestion as to how to close the Federal deficit.   Sin taxes already exist on alcohol, tobacco, gambling — they filled a revenue void when passed.

How long is it before the next few taxable products get taxed: First Hemp, then Marijuana. Sloshspot estimates a substantial tax benefit, plus big savings in enforcement and incarceration:

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click for bigger graphic
maryjane

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As the deficit gets larger, this one actually has a non-zero chance of passing . . .

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Source:
If Marijuana Production Were Legal: Projected Tax Revenues, by State
Sloshspot, November 13, 2009
http://www.sloshspot.com/blog/11-13-2009/If-Marijuana-Production-Were-Legal-Projected-Tax-Revenues-by-State-245

Who is to Blame for the Commercial Real Estate Disaster?

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By Barry Ritholtz - November 16th, 2009, 12:03PM

Over at Clusterstock, John Carney takes a look at the CRE mess, and assigns lots of blame to lots of people, government agencies, central banks and investors.

He did a yeoman’s job on this overview. I cannot say I am on board with everything he trashes, but he gets a lot more right than wrong. Note especially his pointed commentary about the Fed, how CMBS were allowed such light weight reserve requirements, and the rise of regional and community banks in riskier CRE activities.

The gross data points he cites are horrific:

“Commercial real estate prices have fallen 33% this year and 45% from their peak. Greater than 55% of commercial mortgages are underwater. Some analysts say that as many as 2/3 of the loans may be underwater.

As many as 65 percent of commercial mortgages maturing over the next few years will not be able to qualify for refinancing because of the drop in the value of the underlying property.”

Its worth checking out (despite the obvious click whoring!):

“In a pattern familiar from the housing crisis, the value of commercial real estate has been plunging while the volume of distressed commercial real-estate loans is rapidly rising. The problems in commercial real estate could slam financial institutions, especially smaller regional and community banks, with billions of dollars in new losses. That, in turn, could snuff out whatever chances we have of a sustained economic recovery.

In some ways, this shoe has already dropped.

• The MIT Real Estate Center said that commercial property prices has dropped almost 42% over the past 2 years.
• As a result of that drop, about fifty-five percent the $1.4 trillion commercial mortgages that will mature in the next five years are underwater.
• The delinquency rate for commercial mortgages climbed to 5% in October. A year ago the delinquency rate was just 0.77%.
• About half of all commercial mortgages sit on the balance sheets of smaller banks. So the massive number of bank failures this year is significantly attributable to losses from commercial real estate.
• Late last month, one of the largest commercial real estate finance companies in the world filed for bankruptcy.

It’s only natural that you’re asking how the hell we wound up in this mess. Why did a bubble inflate in commercial real estate? Why are smaller banks so disproportionately exposed? What caused this catastrophe?

Good stuff . . .”

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Source:
How A Government Bailout Created Today’s Commercial Real Estate Catastrophe
John Carney
Business Insider, Nov. 16, 2009
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-guide-to-the-commercial-real-estate-catastrophe-2009-11