Succinct summations of events for the week ending July 31, 2015
1. Durable goods increased 3.4% in June, above the 2.6% expected.
2. Case-Shiller home price index rose 4.4% y/o/y.
3. Weekly jobless claims rose to 267k off historically low levels; still very positive number.
4. July Markit services PMI rose to 55.2 from 54.8, a rebound from the lowest read since January last month. The average year to date is now 56.3 and remains below the average seen last year of 57.1.
5. Chicago PMI rose to 54.7, the highest reading since July
6. Japanese labor force participation rate rose to 60%, the most since September ’10, the size of the labor force increased by 390k and the number of employed rose by 340k.
1. Consumer confidence came in at 90.9, a ten-month low and below the 99.3 expected; Consumer sentiment fell to 93.1, down from 93.3 and below the 94 expected.
2. Pending home sales fell 1.8% vs expectations for a 1% gain.
3. US economy grew by 2.3% in Q2 at an annualized pace, less than the 2.5% estimate. This follows a revised Q1 growth rate of .6% vs the last print of a contraction of .2%.
1H growth rate = 1.5%.
4. Employment cost index rose a record low of just 0.2% vs expectations of 0.6%.
5. Average 30 yr mortgage rate fell 6 bps w/o/w to 4.17% as the MBA said mortgage applications were unchanged. Purchases were down .1% while refi’s were higher by 1.6%. Purchases still remain up a good 17.5% y/o/y. Refi’s are higher by 6% y/o/y.
6. There was an upward surprise in the price deflator which grew by 2%, well above the estimate of 1.5%. Also, the core PCE was up 1.8% q/o/q.
I always find it amusing whenever someone expresses surprise that the financial bailouts for Greece haven’t benefitted Greek citizens. “Bailout Money Goes to Greece, Only to Flow Out Again” in the New York Times is just the latest example. “The cash exodus is a small piece of a bigger puzzle over why — despite two…Read More
Interesting few examples from the past showing Gold benefitting from rate increases, as per a report by HSBC’s FX strategist, David Bloom. A few caveats: Rate increases typically occurred during periods of elevated inflation, and during currency fluctuation, especially a weak dollar. At present, we have deflation, and the dollar is at 12 year highs. Traders…Read More
Another interesting 5 day run hurtles towards the weekend — we have your back with our morning train reads: • A Ten-Year Love Affair with Hedge Funds. Part four of CIO’s Google Trends series: How investors fell in and out of love with hedge funds—and how the relationship survives (Chief Investment Officer) • Flat stock markets: It’s not all doom and gloom…Read More
Category: Financial Press
Source: Classic Driver
After almost seven years, the beginning of the end of ultralow rates is here. What’s that you say? The Fed is going to raise rates? Remember the so-called taper tantrum in 2013, when some traders dumped Treasuries to express their ire at the Federal Reserve for having the temerity to suggest that rates can’t stay at zero forever? Today…Read More
Did Janet Yellen say something new yesterday? I wasn’t paying attention. Oh, and our morning train reads: • The Worst Mutual Fund in the World (Fund Reference) • Advisers’ Stock Recommendations Drag Down Clients’ Portfolios, Study Finds (WSJ) but see How Financial Advisers Can Help Close the Behavior Gap (CFA Institute) • Uber’s Phantom Cabs (Motherboard) • Donald Trump Is The…Read More
Category: Financial Press