Succinct Summations of Weeks Events 11.21.14

Succinct Summations week ending November 21st:


1. The Philly fed came in at 40.8, vs expectations of 20.7. This was the best reading since 1993!
2. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones both made new all-time highs, the third consecutive week both did so.
3. Headline CPI was flat m/o/m and is up 1.7% y/o/y. Core CPI rose 0.2% m/o/m and is up 1.8% y/o/y.
4. The BOJ called off next year’s tax hike after seeing lousy GDP numbers, stocks liked it.
5. Existing home sales came in at 5.26mm, better than expected and up from 5.18mm in September.
6. The purchase component of mortgage applications rose 11.7% w/o/w, the biggest rise since July.
7. China cut rates and Draghi spoke with an accommodative tone; it’s the same global story, stocks went higher.
8. The highest percentage of S&P 500 companies are beating EPS since 2010.
9. Energy prices fell 1.6% y/o/y/.
10. The NAHB home builder sentiment index rose to 58 versus 55 expected and up from 54 last month.


1. Japan officially enters a recession with GDP coming in at -1.6% vs expectations of 2.1%.
2. China’s HSBC manufacturing index fell to 50, a six-month low.
3. The Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to a ten-month low at 54.7.
4. NY manufacturing index came in at 10.2, below the 12 expected.
5. U.S. industrial production fell 0.1% vs an expected rise of 0.2%.
6. Initial jobless claims came in at 291k, 7k more than expected.

Category: Markets

Why is the United States in a Constant State of Emergency?

click for full article Source: WonkBlog

Category: Digital Media, Politics, Really, really bad calls

Your Brain Can’t Handle Green on the Screen

We have said a good deal in this space about the futility of trying to time short-term market moves (see e.g., this, this and this). No one has demonstrated the ability to do this consistently over time. While it is possible to avoid the very largest of collapses over long periods of time using a…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Psychology, Really, really bad calls

10 Friday AM Reads

Is it Friday already? Big green on the screen as yesterday’s intraday reversal from the gap down was the strongest since the October lows — then China cuts rates. And train reads: • What Is Russell Investments? Lured by the indexing business, the London Stock Exchange got a consultancy and asset manager in the bargain….Read More

Category: Financial Press

2015 Design of the Year: Mercedes-Benz S Coupe

Many years ago, I had a 1983 MB 380 SEC. It was the coupé version of the W126 S-Class — it was a giant rear drive 2 door version of the S class, chock full of technological advance of the day, including a seat belt presenter (really). At highway speed, it would lower itself. It wasn’t fast off the line, but it was an autobahn cruiser. I drove it to Virginia and back several times and it would lope — at 90mph, it was practically idling, running at 2200 rpm. (I never pressed it to see what the top end was). I was rear ended in it by a Volvo, whose front end was destroyed; The big Benz never got so much as a scratch on it. It was solid as a bank vault.

The new most up to date version of the S coupe is out, and the it is Twin-Turbo 4.7L V8, 449 HP / 516 LB-FT, 7-Speed Auto, All-Wheel Drive S550 4MATIC Coupe  was just named Automobile Magazine‘s Design of the Year. My current lease (Infiniti M) is up in March 2016, and this would make a lovely replacement (if I could get Mrs. Big Picture to say yes to it!):



Source: Mercedes Benz, Automobile Magazine





More photos after the jump



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Category: Weekend

The Effect of Oil Price Declines on Consumer Prices

The Effect of Oil Price Declines on Consumer Prices Ben Craig and Sara Millington 11.19.14       Oil prices have declined significantly in recent weeks, reaching levels not seen in several years.  At the same time, the year-over-year percent change in the most widely known measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), came…Read More

Category: Consumer Spending, Energy, Think Tank

2014 On Pace for Hottest Year

This is very impressive:

Category: Science, Video

10 Thursday PM Reads

My afternoon train reads: • If Pimco Were A Country, It Would Be The Most Unequal Place On The Planet (HuffPo) • Your investment advisor is probably a “maniac” (Phil Pearlman’s Tumblr) • Should you buy what Tony Robbins is selling? (Abnormal Returns) • Noah Smith: Why Some Money Managers Succeed by Losing (Bloomberg View) •…Read More

Category: Financial Press

Winner Take All in Asset Management

As a follow up to this morning’s article on global AUM, have a gander at this interesting league table from BGC:   Source: Boston Consulting Group    

Category: Markets

World’s Total AuM = Record $68.7 Trillion

Boston Consulting Group has a new report out concluding that, “The asset management industry has achieved its strongest year of growth since the onset of the financial crisis.” As always, the consulting firm’s annual report on global asset management is a dry, number-laden and utterly fascinating look at the business of overseeing money. Ignore the…Read More

Category: Asset Allocation, Investing