The Vanguard Effect

Source: Marketwatch

Category: Index/ETFs, Investing

Uneven Recovery, Noise & Ignorance: Why People Missed the Recovery

There has been a steady drumbeat of dissatisfaction about the post-credit-crisis recovery. No matter how much the economy improves, a good number of people insist it hasn’t. Now, in the midst of the political silly season, it has intensified as candidates pander to voters. This is a subject near and dear to me (see this, this, this, this, this, andthis),…Read More

Category: Cognitive Foibles, Currency, Economy, Inflation, Politics, Psychology, Really, really bad calls

10 Monday AM Reads

It has been a sad weekend in Paris and around the world. We bring you our morning train reads: • Terror and markets: Sell-offs tend to be short-lived (USAT) • The Upward Drift in Valuations (Irrelevant Investor) • Cause their forecasting record is so good: Don’t Fight the Fed: Analysts say, It’s Lower for Longer for Bond Yields (WSJ)…Read More

Category: Financial Press

New Site: Bloomberg’s Gadfly launches a new site called Gadfly – its is geared to be data-centric, graphic heavy, smart reporting — my kind of site. The Twitter handle is @BFly (Gadfly is an expansion of the site I write for, Bloomberg View). The focus is finance and technology. It is an impressive roster of authoritative columnists drawing on a treasure trove of data…Read More

Category: Financial Press, Web/Tech

Category: Think Tank

Case In Point w/ Guest Josh Brown (Video)

Click for video.

Source: Wealth Management

Category: Video

Labor Force Participation Rate is a Non-Issue

@TBPInvictus here

In my recent piece on U-6, I mentioned that the labor force participation rate (LFPR) is a favorite target for critics of the economic recovery (and the Obama administration). I mentioned that I’d written about the LFPR quite some time ago, and that Bill McBride had done likewise at Calculated Risk:

 What is probably my most comprehensive piece on the LFPR is here, published in May 2014. Bill McBride, over at Calculated Risk, has also done some work on this file (see here and here). (Bill is one of the best economic bloggers out there, and I have a ton of respect for his work and am thrilled to have gotten to know him a bit over the years.) LFPR out of the way, let’s move on.

Bill has referred to critiquing the LFPR as “the last refuge of scoundrels.” And with good reason. I had no intention of revisiting LFPR, but a recent piece of research changed my mind, as you’ll soon see.

In what I believe is her most recent piece (December 2013) on the topic, BLS economist Mitra Toossi – probably the foremost authority on the subject – projects that the LFPR will continue to decline, incorporating this chart into her work:


Screen Shot 2015-11-13 at 2.09.12 PM


But enough about Bill McBride, Mitra Toossi, and me. My good pal Dave Rosenberg weighed in on the LFPR in the November 12 edition of his always fabulous Breakfast With Dave. If you subscribe to one top-notch, top-down, daily view of the world, you should make it Dave’s – it’s easily the best daily insight out there, and you can scrap five others in favor of his.

Oh, and those of us who know Rosie personally found Ritholtz’s interview with him (yesterday, here) to be both informative, with parts that are hilarious.

This is a longish, thorough, and informative read, so sit back and enjoy. And remember, no credible talking head would cite this stat. Keep this in mind as you watch various business channels and shows. Continue on, then impress friends and family at upcoming Thanksgiving gatherings with your newfound knowledge!

(See also Bonddad Blog’s work on this topic here and here.)

Reproduced here with the author’s permission. Take it away, Rosie:

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Category: Current Affairs, Cycles, Data Analysis, Employment

10 Sunday Reads

My easy like Sunday morning reads: • Why Indexing Beats Stock-Picking (Bloomberg View) but see The Man Who Hates E.T.F.s (Dealbook) • The real reasons people retire: It’s not just about money. Health, family, and lifestyle choices are also key. (Fidelity) • Warren Buffett Has an Image Problem (WSJ) • Who wants to be a hedge fund? (Bloomberg View) • Home-Loan…Read More

Category: Financial Press

The Amateur Advantage

How you, the amateur investor, can beat the pros Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, November 8, 2015     Since I started writing this column five years ago, I have consistently discussed how challenging managing your money can be. It shouldn’t be this difficult, but you humans tend to make things much more complicated than they…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Asset Allocation, Investing, Philosophy

MiB: David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff, Merrill Lynch

This week on our Masters in Business interview, we speak with David Rosenberg, currently Chief Economist/Strategist at Gluskin Sheff, formerly Chief Economist at Merrill Lynch. Rosie describes how his role as an economist and strategist shifted dramatically once he moved from the Sell Side (as Brokerages are called) to the Buy Side (asset managers, mutual funds, etc.)  It required…Read More

Category: Podcast