Correction or New Bear Market ?

Here we are, 10-plus months into the year, and we have nothing to show for it.

At least, that is the case if we measure our progress by the gains (or losses) of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The index is now unchanged for the year after last week’s losses. The previously one direction market has suddenly recalled what volatility looks like, having for the most part forgotten.

Yes, stocks go up AND down.

At the beginning of the fourth quarter, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up about 7 percent for the year; those gains have now been cut by more than half. The Russell 2000 small cap index was already almost 5 percent, and the past few weeks have added to the red. The Nasdaq 100 is still positive on the year, but the has given back some of its gains.

I can’t tell you what will happen in the coming weeks or months, nor can I tell you what to do, not knowing your time horizon, risk tolerance and client base. I can, however, bring to your attention some interesting data points you may not have been aware of:

Continues here

 

Category: Cycles, Investing, Quantitative, Trading

10 Monday AM Reads

Hope you feel rested and refreshed! I have a feeling this week is going to get a bit funky! Start it right with our morning train reads: • How Scared Should Investors Be? (WSJ) see also Bear markets are a learning experience. Really. (USA Today) • The Quantitative Value Philosophy: Buy the Cheapest, Highest Quality Value…Read More

Category: Financial Press

TDS: Lawsuits of the Rich and Shameless

Former AIG Chairman and CEO Hank Greenberg sues the U.S. government, claiming that the terms of the company’s $184 billion bailout were insufficient and unfair.

TDS 9:58

Category: Bailouts, Humor, Video

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller talks with WSJ’s Jason Zweig about market valuations and investors’ expectations. (see full article WSJ)  

Category: Markets

Howard Stern’s Success

How did this happen? They’re fighting to be on Howard Stern’s radio program. Today alone, he featured not only Chelsea Handler and Billy Idol, but Bill Murray, the ungettable get. That’s right. Bill doesn’t even have an agent, he’s elusive, but he wanted to be on Howard’s show. In an era where content providers are…Read More

Category: Television, Think Tank, Weekend

Successful Investors *Adapt (*or go Extinct)

Dave Nadig of ETF.com has some very kind things to say about our latest project: “Right now, on our home page, we have evidence of what I think is the most important trend we’re seeing in financial services. It’s not a product launch, or a clever structure or a brilliant way to make money now….Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Asset Allocation, Investing

10 Sunday Reads

Good Sunday morning. Pour yourself a cup if coffee, and settle in to feed your brain: • The State of Investment Around the World (Philosophical Economics) see also A Great Ride, but Reality Is Returning (NY Times) • Corporate U.S. Healthiest in Decades Under Obama on Debt (Bloomberg) • Should you fear the October stock-market curse? (Marketwatch)…Read More

Category: Financial Press

Inherent Vice

This looks awesome:     INHERENT VICE, in theaters December 2014. “Inherent Vice,” is the seventh feature from Paul Thomas Anderson and the first ever film adaption of a Thomas Pynchon novel. When private eye Doc Sportello’s ex-old lady suddenly out of nowhere shows up with a story about her current billionaire land developer boyfriend…Read More

Category: Film, Weekend

Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller talks with WSJ’s Jason Zweig about market valuations and investors’ expectations. (see full article WSJ)

 

Category: Psychology, Video

What If You Were the World’s Greatest Stock Picker® ?

Even if you could pick huge winners, could you hold them? Barry Ritholtz Washington Post, October 5, 2014       Let’s imagine for the moment that you are the World’s Greatest Stock Picker®. You have an uncanny talent for ferreting out “the next Microsoft” — companies that are on the sharpest edge of what’s…Read More

Category: Apprenticed Investor, Investing, Psychology