My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at why It’s time to market forecasters to admit the errors of their ways.
It is yet another look at the parade of really bad forecasts we get treated to constantly in the world of investing and finance.
Here’s an excerpt from the column:
“What say we finally put a fork in Prediction, Inc.?
There is a forecasting-industrial complex, and it is a blight on all that is good and true. The symbiotic relationship between the media and Wall Street drives a relentless parade of money-losing tomfoolery: Television and radio have 24 hours a day they must fill, and they do so mostly with empty-headed nonsense. Print has column inches to put out. Online media may be the worst of all, with an infinite maw that needs to be constantly filled with new and often meaningless content.
Just because the beast must be fed does not mean you must be dragon fodder. (More on this later.)”
The entire piece is worth your time to read in full, including some advice on the best way for you the home viewer to deal with this.
It’s time to market forecasters to admit the errors of their ways
Washington Post, January 18, 2015
My Easy like Sunday morning reads: • Shitcoin: a Modest Proposal. (Loper OS) • I Was an Amazon Chew Toy: “The dog-friendly offices always had their doors closed, lest the dogs escape.” (The Awl) • Shiller: What Good Are Economists? (Project Syndicate) • What’s So Bad About Cheap Oil? (NYT) • Attorney General Holder limits civil seizure process that split billions…Read More
Category: Financial Press
CURATORS/FILTERS They’re everything in the modern world. Unless you attach yourself to someone/something that already has an audience, your chance of succeeding is incredibly low, because there’s just too much noise. So, despite the bitching about challenging economics, that’s the power of the newspaper. It’s filtered news. And ads. And listings. Most competing with traditional…Read More
This week, the “Masters in Business” podcast features Part 1 of an interview with famous bond investor Bill Gross, formerly of Pimco, now with Janus Capital.
Gross sat down with me in the Bloomberg studios in New York for an extensive two-hour interview. It was the first time I’ve met Gross, and I found him to be intelligent and forthright, answering all of my questions directly and unambiguously.
We discussed the early days at Pacific Life, the founding of Pimco and his early influences and mentors. He talked about the role of Black Jack in influencing his investing and risk-taking philosophy.
I was especially intrigued by his descriptions of what it was like to manage assets in the 1970s and ’80s. He said that during the 1987 crash, he sat transfixed, “staring at the screen like a deer in the headlights.” He vowed to make sure that during future crises that wouldn’t happen again.
He also said quite a few surprising things — about the Federal Reserve and quantitative easing, about what investors can learn from gamblers and about his creation of Portable Alpha.
Next week, “Masters in Business” will feature Part 2 of the interview.
That was a week for the record books. Settle into your favorite easy chair, fill a mug of hot joe, and enjoy our longer form weekend reads: • Google Search Will Be Your Next Brain (Medium) • How stories change hearts and brains (Aeon) see also What are some of the most mind-blowing facts that sound…Read More
Category: Financial Press
Switzerland – Chapter 2 David R. Kotok January 16, 2015 In the wake of Switzerland’s removing the cap on the Swiss franc’s value against the euro, debt owed by non-Swiss agents has become an emerging issue. That debt, denominated in either Swiss francs or in euros, is secured by collateral outside of Switzerland. Is…Read More
Succinct Summation of Week’s Events Positives: 1) The SNB cries mercy and comes to terms with the fact that it can’t win a currency battle with the ECB. The Swiss people have just dramatically improved the purchasing power of their savings. Also, while highly disruptive to economies and markets in the short term, maybe the…Read More
“Wealth – any income that is at least one hundred dollars more a year than the income of one’s wife’s sister’s husband.” –H.L. Mencken On Fridays, I like to wax eloquent and philosophical — about investing, analysis and asset management. Often, there are lessons from other disciplines that are applicable to our…Read More