On Monday, we looked at the impact of the Exhaustion Rate on Continuing Unemployment Claims (See Continuing Claims “Exhaustion Rate” and Exhausted Claims part II). Those charts and tables made it clear that Continuing Unemployment Claims were dropping not due to folks getting jobs, but simply using up all of their benefits.

Wednesday, we learned of a) record credit card chargeoffs and Increasing minimum Credit Cards payments from 2% to 5% at Chase.

Now, lets see what happens if we can put those two together:
>

Unemployment Exhaustion Rates and Credit Card Charge Offs

charge-card-exhaustion-rates

>

I suspect we can do the same studies with Unemployment Rates also .  . .

>

Hat tip Shawn!

Category: Credit, Employment

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

280 Responses to “Credit Card Chargeoffs vs Exhaustion Rate”

  1. cvienne says:

    I can already tell you where the new north & south poles are going to be if you’re interested…

  2. Transor Z says:

    @Thor:

    I caught the Nostradamus show with Orson Welles also. But Leonard Nimoy’s show “In Search Of” was more my generation. The 70s was the heyday of UFOs and ancient astronauts, astrology/mysticism, satanism, lost empires, “unexplained natural phenomena,” etc. Good stuff, especially when you aren’t old enough to be able to think critically. Scary to think how many people are never old enough to outgrow that stuff.

  3. ben22 says:

    Karen,

    How strange, we must be connected somehow. Where is LB today? I think he was in mostly cash going in to today but looking for that 880, I think the low print recently was 889. Do you think we are carving out the right shoulder?

    Re: Sunspots

    I didn’t mean to say they had anything to do with the end of the world, but very close study of them reveals some things about the market, it just does, it’s a hell of a better predictor than p/e ratio.

  4. karen says:

    crude (oil) update.. changed my mind on DUG. trying for some after all here since there wasn’t much of a pop on the “nigerian incident”

  5. Thor says:

    CNBC – sad, but true, I’m in IT and I see what these kids do all day, sadly CNBC is right – Emo/Indie, Facebook/Twitter, that’s about it. They’re definitely in for a rude awakening though, life isn’t working out quite the way their boomer parents convinced them it would.

  6. karen says:

    Ben, you know i think we are in a belabored trudge to 1k plus that is going to drive the bears crazy : )

  7. ben22 says:

    @CNBCS

    I’m 28, and none of the people I hang out with that are my age even know where money comes from. I also get made fun of a lot by them for how much I save, and how much I work.

    Sad.

  8. bubba says:

    @Thor
    “I’ve been keeping track of all the end of the world predictions since then.”

    well, don’t keep us in suspense…how many of them came true?

  9. DL says:

    ben22 @ 12:09

    “Karen and DL are maybe (B)…?”

    Yeah, I don’t think that the “debt chickens” are going to come home to roost within the next three years. Could be quite a bit longer. However, I do think that the higher the debt levels are, the more fragile the economy becomes. The next recession could be worse than average, just like this one has been.

  10. ben22 says:

    karen,

    me too, I’ve seen some calls on here lately that seem really smart about collapsing in July, bottom in Oct. basically just following the “best six months strategy” but I’m still holding to my target from months ago which was 965-1k. This countertrend rally should really make the bulls extremely confident and the bears want to give up but I don’t see that just yet.

  11. Mortimus says:

    I’m 27.
    Please, don’t judge us by “The Hills” or reality TV – my generation doesn’t care for the idiot box. These convos have become my “Must See TV”

    Oops I’m just a spectator not a poster, going back to my corner now.

  12. S Brennan says:

    Well it’s really a reflection of the privatization of the social safety net.

    I mean, it’s only fair that the publicly insured/subsidized [by US Government] private financial institutions should make money on those who are suffering unemployment through the mismanagement of the US economy by financial institutions.

    Nonsense you say, circular logic…ask your Congressman or Senator…and it doesn’t matter which party they belong to, because the pillaging of the average American is a “post-partisan” thingy.

  13. cvienne says:

    @ben22

    I’m not with you at the moment on that 965-1k call…(unless we get above 930 by July 7th)…At that point, I’d jump back on board…

  14. CNBC Sucks says:

    Alright, we have Hoffer, cvienne, lefty, and ben22 on Team (A), and we have karen, DL, Mannwich, and myself on Team (B). Sounds like a pretty good game of shirts and skins.

    Team (B) will, of course, go skins.

  15. dead hobo says:

    ben22 Says:
    June 25th, 2009 at 1:00 pm

    This countertrend rally should really make the bulls extremely confident and the bears want to give up but I don’t see that just yet.

    comment:
    ———————
    ben22,

    I don’t think the bulls and bears paradigm applies at this time and hasn’t for a couple of months at least. It’s iBanks, computers, pumpers, and a minuscule number of small time day traders who feel lucky. It’s a mostly private game in a private club now. You and others just get access to the lobby and a couple of amenities. Given the low volume and lack of normal reaction to fundamentals, it is not the same stock market we used to play around in. It only looks the same superficially.

    Your’s and other’s day trading ideas are probably amusing to the computer programmers who are running the show at this time.

  16. cvienne says:

    We need Andy T to com in and settle the score…

    Those are some mighty scratchy EW lines being drawn…Looks to me like hobo’s computer programmers are either DRUNK, or in a rush to get somewhere…

  17. dead hobo says:

    In fact, I would not even describe the market as a greater fool’s game right now.

    On a small scale you have this …

    One or two powerful computers are backed up by massive capital. Someone decides what program to run. Today it’s the “pump hard and suck in” program. Other computers, managed by financial scientists who think they can win someone else’s game, get triggered by manipulated market moves and tricked into making buys. Manager two thinks he can win if he thinks a little faster than the team that started it. It’s not investing. It’s more of a competitive sport. Team 2 doesn’t mind playing a rigged game because any new money sucked in will be fleeced by both teams.

  18. cvienne says:

    see…you could buy the SDS right now (with the S&P at 922) and get the hat coming down from 6/2, along with a 50% FIBO retrace…

    Then you see it trade down to 903 by next Tuesday…

    Then be frustrated as it makes a move to 930 on July 6th or 7th…

  19. Thor says:

    Bubba – none of course. No one can predict the future. They’ve been predicting the end of the world since before Jesus was crucified. Napoleon was the anti-christ, then Hitler, then Reagan, then Saddam Hussein, now it’s Osama. On and on.

  20. The Curmudgeon says:

    ben22 Says:

    June 25th, 2009 at 12:07 pm

    Re: Dollar

    I’m mostly in cash myself. I don’t actively trade, and have a hedge against the dollar in some long positions in oil and gold (which have done well). I think being in cash is as smart as anything. It gives you flexibility for when it appears the break-out comes, whichever way it breaks. I personally don’t feel the dollar is doomed, at least not in relation to its counterparts (Euro and Yen) short-term, but by 2012, well, given it’ll be time to find a new savior and there are those sunspots, it may be interesting.

    My son graduates high school in 2012 (what a year to start adulthood), so I’m a bit longer in the tooth than you. But you are quite wise. As I tell my son all the time: Knowledge without wisdom is at best useless, at worst dangerous.

  21. Thor says:

    Mortimus and Ben – I’m close enough to your generation to remember my teens and 20′s well. When I was a kid everyone was worried about our future because we spent too much time playing PacMan and Tron. In our 20′s we were labeled Gen-X – now I’m not sure how you’d categorize us – The “Who Cares” Generation? The “Meh” Generation?

  22. manhattanguy says:

    cvienne – are you referring to this

    Pole shift & Pole reversal in 2012
    http://www.survive2012.com/geryl1.php

  23. franklin411 says:

    @CNBC
    I think you have one too many teams. I would describe the commentary on this board as:

    A. Those who think we will have some sort of reckoning *from which America will never ever ever ever never ever ever ever never never never never* recover. The main point of contention amongst these folks is whether the US will cause the extinction of all humanity as it declines or whether the Andromeda Strain can be contained to the Western Hemisphere.

    B. franklin411

  24. cvienne says:

    @Thor

    What makes me laugh when people want to point a finger at me and turn me into some kind of a joke because I talk about these things I’ve done and preparations I’ve made…

    Let me put it to you this way…

    It’s not like I’m sitting in a shack quivering in the corner or anything…

    And here’s the positive side…

    - I eat better because I grow my own food.
    - I don’t waste energy driving back and forth to the supermarket to buy something in plastic.
    - I produce MY OWN energyon the margin…Very little CO2 footprint…
    - I share ideas with others on how to do these things and don’t ask a fee.
    - I help my neighbors.
    - I enjoy myself fishing, exercisisng, doing labor around the house & farm.

    I simply don’t understand any criticism that comes from individuals who are holed up in little boxes in the big city breathing polluted air, telling ME I’m weird!

  25. Mortimus says:

    Ah Thor, just saw your musings on “Nostradamus, The Man Who Saw Tomorrow.”

    Believe me when I say that that movie scorched my young psyche to the point where even to this day I have an unhealthy obsession with Orson Welles (and Saudis in floating spaceships…not sure why that clip sticks out but it does) Vincent Price also creeps me out because of some weird toddler association

    Here’s my favorite clip that helped me subdue my Orson fear (and the end of the world)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5LkDNu8bVU

  26. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    CNBC: Mark me in the A column.

    thanks.

  27. Wes Schott says:

    cv –

    you are in a great way

    nobody should be making fun of you for that

    …and you right to be po’d if we bail out CA

  28. Thor says:

    Cvienne – that wasn’t a put down directed at you. Sorry if it came off that way.

  29. cvienne says:

    @manhattanguy

    I suppose that’s just one of the sites…There’s about a million of them these days (mostly copying each other)…

    I’M GOING TO SAY THIS ONE LAST TIME BECAUSE OBVIOUSLY NOBODY UNDERSTANDS MY POV ON THIS…

    I COULD CARE FUCKING LESS IF THE WORLD ENDS IN 2012 OR NOT…I FRANKLY DON’T BELIEVE IT WILL…

    WHAT WORRIES ME ARE THE MORONS OUT THERE WHO ARE GOING TO CREATE A STAMPEDE AHEAD OF THAT EVENT (especially if things don’t get better -faster – in the economy)…

    I think Mark E. Hoffer is the only one getting my gist here…

  30. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Unemployment numbers and revisions were hemlock to the green shooters today…as was European manufacturing.

  31. ben22 says:

    Hobo,

    All due respect but everything the stock market does is saturated with paradox so reading extreme levels of sentiment is always going to be something I use. As for my ideas or others here being amusing, my portfolio has destroyed that supercomputer simons trades with this year. It’s one of the most powerful computers in the world. I’m laughing all the way to the bank. Here is a list of others performance that are part of that “private club” that I have more than beaten since this all started:

    Performance from 10/12/07 – 3/6/09
    Leuthold Core Investments: -37%
    Berkshire Hathaway -42%
    Fidelity Contrafund -49%
    Columbia Acorn Fund -56%
    CGM Focus Fund -60%
    Calamos Growth Fund -60%
    Third Ave. Value Fund -62%
    Dreman High Return Equity -66%
    Legg Mason Value Trust -71%
    JH Classic Value -72%
    Gabelli Equity Trust -77%

    Rationalization follows upon mood change. Mood change comes first, and attempts at reasoning come afterward. Social actions follow upon mood change, because they are results, not causes. Social events then provide a basis for rationalization about the stock market. All thinking that attends these events derives from mood changes that have ocurred in the past and proceeds without a clue as to mood changes that lie directly ahead. Paradox after pardox results.

    - Prechter

    Not trying to be rude but it seems to me that the people being loudest about market manipulation are doing exactly this. I believe there were 6% bulls at the March 6 bottom on the AAII.

    All that said, I love your comment at 1:09 and if I’m right about how low this goes before it is all over it will be the attitude shared by most, not just a few dead hobo’s. Record desire for cash instead of equity or debt should be seen at the bottom.

  32. manhattanguy says:

    @cvienne
    take a chill pill dude and get off caffeine. You sound like a grumpy old man sometimes.

  33. dead hobo says:

    ben22,

    If you were describing a real market, I would be on board with you. This one is too manipulated to consider as anything other than a bet on red. Congratulations on being able to keep track of what cup the pea is hidden under.

  34. CNBC Sucks says:

    OK, Bruce. I am going to claim Donna to make it 5-on-5.

    Team A (shirts): Hoffer, cvienne, lefty, ben22, Bruce
    Team B (skins): karen, Donna, DL, Mannwich, myself

    Team B will win because lefty will be too distracted to play any defense.

  35. Wes Schott says:

    @1:42 -

    just ignore the caps lock, and he is fine

  36. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Franklin:

    Did you sell your two shares of bgu yet? If you did, when are you getting back in the market?

  37. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Cnbc:

    And lefty is not allowed to bring the Swedish twins to our sideline…until after the game..

  38. bubba says:

    Oh come on Thor, I was being facetious. Yes, NO ONE can predict the future, not even the great Leftback. The best one can do is make educated guesses and these can often times be right. And of course one can also get lucky with ones “predictions”. But this is not the same as clairvoyance. Anyone that claims such powers is a crackpot….like the folks who ascribed divine stature to a mere mortal — Jesus (if indeed he even existed).

  39. ben22 says:

    Curmudgeon,

    I’m not wise at all, I just put almost all of my time into this and I’ve probably made more mistakes trading my own money than most people twice my age, so I learn from it. I get most of my best ideas from somebody else. In the large scheme, I’m just joe blow ben22 on TBP. Nothing to see there.

    I think the best thing for me is that I spend most of my time with people a lot older and more experienced with things than me, part of the reason I come here. As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another.

    @franklin,

    You still don’t know what a “bear” is do you? Nope, not a predictor of the end of the world. Wrong.

  40. ben22 says:

    @hobo,

    Congratulations on being able to keep track of what cup the pea is hidden under.

    It’s only 6/25, lot of year left before I can say it was truly a good one.

  41. Thor says:

    Mortimus – great link!

    Cvienne – Again, nothing directed at you. I told you last night I thought your preparations were a good thing.

  42. Transor Z says:

    OT, for those of you all in cash with statistics skillz looking for something to do:
    http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/files/14234_iranelection0609.pdf

    I read about this in today’s Boston Globe online which led me to the paper above.

    http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2009/06/25/statistics_wizard_from_winchester_makes_a_splash_in_iran_election/

    ———————–

    Reinforces the idea that statistics is now sexy. IMO the work being done on the financial blogs like TBP to parse out government and industry-provided economic numbers to separate shit from shinola is a pro-democracy movement.

    @CNBCS: Not (c). Beyond that, I leave the forecasting to you guys with real knowledge and skin in the game.

  43. cvienne says:

    @CNBC Sucks

    In that case, I vote that Team B has Franklin as it’s waterboy…:-)

    @manhattanguy
    I’m not pissed my friend…I’m just trying to find a better way to get people to understand what I’m SAYING, instead of what I’m saying…

  44. hopeImwrong says:

    Although (a) and (b) are possible, I’m in the “we will do Japan, American style!” camp.

    The gov’t is increasingly powerful, and as long as their political lives depend on whitewashing any societal pain, (a) and (b) can only happen if the gov’t truely loses control. So, if there is a shock to the system the gov’t can’t whitewash, or if their political lives no longer are attached to amelioration of societal discomfort, then we are Japan, otherwise “drop and roll!”

  45. I-Man says:

    @ B22:

    You said: “I just put almost all of my time into this and I’ve probably made more mistakes trading my own money than most people twice my age, so I learn from it. ”

    Glad I’m not the only one, Holmes.

    Team 30 and Under… You could call us “Young Guns”. Franklin, you’re not on the team.

  46. Andy T says:

    great charts. This idea of exhaustion rate of unemployment benefits is very interesting….I guess that’s why U-6 is the better unemployment measure.

    Interesting snap back day. It makes the move down from 956 look like a “corrective” pattern. 922 – 930 is clear resistance zone. Anyone would looking for a nice H&S top would love to see a peak and reverse into 930. A corrective move lower from here fits into the theory that we’re in the beginning stages of carving out a big triangle (huge whipsaw congestion) all summer…..could be nauseating.

  47. CNBC Sucks says:

    Bruce, kudos on the second-best comeback to Franklin so far. The prize still belongs to cvienne, but keep working it.

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/sentiment-reading-mixed/#comment-168761
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/05/resilient/#comment-168860

  48. manhattanguy says:

    @cvienne: no problemo… i wanted to make sure you are not misinterpreting my comments :)

  49. Thor says:

    hopeImwrong Says:

    Although (a) and (b) are possible, I’m in the “we will do Japan, American style!” camp.

    I would say I’m much more in line with this. We’ve fallen off the edge of the cliff, we might fall off another one in the near future, but we’ll skid along the bottom for years (decades?)

  50. Wes Schott says:

    the future is not bi-polar, it is more than multi-polar, it is a continuum of possibilities

    why do so many want to make thinks either/or?

    CNBCS, i am with Thor on this categorization stuff, and with you on the cup size (there is more than two, errr, sizes, that is)

  51. hopeImwrong says:

    Correction to previous last sentence:

    So, if there is a shock to the system the gov’t can’t whitewash, or if their political lives no longer are attached to amelioration of societal discomfort, then “drop and roll!”, otherwise we are Japan

  52. karen says:

    Andy! nauseating?! come on. let’s call it “fun” instead.

  53. I-Man says:

    @ AT:

    I’m with you amigo (as usual)… that H&S top has got to be in play… triple shoulders though. I had thought that the third Left Shoulder was just part of the Head… now I’m not so sure after the move down from 965… looks like the triple shoulder is correct though.

    Sloping neckline kind of weird though… no?

  54. I-Man says:

    Hi Karen…
    :)

  55. Wes Schott says:

    CNBCS@1:54 -

    cv’s best comment to F411 had to be deleted…

    remember-

    “Waterboarding in not persuasion”

  56. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Cvienne:

    I kind of like what you are doing ’cause I have done something a little like it myself. I moved from a very large city to the mountains of East Tennessee. I am not energy self sufficient, but certainly could be. I now own a tractor, have a garden, nearest neighbor is 3/4 mile away, and so forth. Now my weekends are my own, and I am delighted. I think my wife could make rocks flower and bring forth fruit if she were of a mind to do it..

  57. Andy T says:

    Karen. Indeed! For me nauseating is synonymous with “fun.” Will be a difficult trading environment for most people looking for a “trend.” To make money, you’ll have to be willing to buy the big move down 750-800 and be willing to sell the subsequent snapback on the “successful” test of the March lows….etc…etc…bulls and bears should both look foolish next several weeks…..

  58. ben22 says:

    I-man,

    We do exist here and there. Franklin can be on the team but he gets a different uniform and he’s only allowed to watch, no actual playing time.

    @ hobo,

    This is not intended to be rude, but I want to try to draw this out some more. When did it stop being a “real market”? Do you have a date when it became too manipulated? I’m trying to figure out how you are even defining this exactly.

  59. I-Man says:

    Plus… a move back up to 930, after a move down from todays high at 922 would carve out a beautiful falling price channel.

    I have the base of the channel starting at 6/1 open at 923… touch at this weeks momentum low at 888… Only thing missing is a move up to 930.

    Top of the channel I have at 965 momentum high.

    A move back to 930 and a reversal would most certainly be the “lower high” that keeps being so damn elusive. We’ll see.

  60. cvienne says:

    @AT @I-man

    Occam’s Razor…The simplest solution is best…

    Draw 930 on 7/6/09…You’ve got a .618 FIBO retrace…

    The market doesn’t even NEED to hold on for the rest…I mean LOOK AT IT, it’s tired…I don’t even think the punks in Washington want it higher…Rahm Emanuel said it best himself…”We don’t want to waste a good economic crisis”…

    So why make things any better? It’s time for Crisis part 2 (so that they can come riding in on their white horses again)…

    Part 1 is losing it’s VERVE…It’s time to rattle things up again…

    Hell…”W”…did the same thing…Everytime things got too cozy, some other crisis, or threat had to surface to keep the “sheeple’s” attention…

    That’s how government works!

  61. Andy T says:

    “I-Man Says:
    June 25th, 2009 at 2:06 pm
    @ AT:

    Sloping neckline kind of weird though… no?”

    With so many people now picking up on H&S patterns, there will be fewer of them going forward. I heard Bill Griffeth blathering about a H&S pattern…when that dude is citing it, it demonstrates that a certain pattern is becoming too mainstream.

    So, in the future I’m expecting either a) less H&S patterns developed or b) contorted H&S forms with “sloppier” necklines and/or less balance to the shoulders.

    My 2 cents on in it.

  62. cvienne says:

    @Bruce in Tn…

    This year I started my own mini-winery…So I hope to be sitting on my deck next to my pool in 2012 and drinking my first vintage :-)

  63. karen says:

    I-Man, “that H&S top has got to be in play.” Laughing, nothing’s gotta be anything in this market. What Andy said above is the absolute truth, “Will be a difficult trading environment for most people looking for a “trend.””

    btw, watch the spx on a 15 minute chart… the candles forecast well in the short term.. today is looking iffy again. i feel a headache coming on, lol.

  64. Thor says:

    Karen – for those of us who don’t speak stockese – what do you mean by “iffy”? :-)

  65. cvienne says:

    @Andy T

    “So, in the future I’m expecting either a) less H&S patterns developed or b) contorted H&S forms with “sloppier” necklines and/or less balance to the shoulders.”

    EXACTLY

    I’ve been eyeing those ‘sloping’ H&S patterns for a bit of time now…I even made a few posts on this site about it…

  66. CNBC Sucks says:

    Actually, Bruce also had another good Franklin comment here: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/06/crisis-responsibility-reagan-vs-bush/#comment-182541

    Anytime Bruce mentions “bullet” and “Franklin” in the same comment, I pay attention.

    Thor, hopeImwrong, and Wes – you guys have convinced me to add Team D, and I promise not to merge you with Franklin. But I am shocked that no one has picked up on karen having to go skins.

  67. Andy T says:

    cvienne. Well yeah man. That’s the classic setup for a H&S. The b-wave retraces 61.8%, which seems to always coincide with the opposite shoulder, then you get the powerful c-wave down which is 161.8% of a-wave, which renders that target of the “head’s height” measured from the neckline breakout. To carry on with the coincidences, if this H&S does play it we’ll end up with a target that gets very close to a 50% retrace around 811 (a target that will inevitably bring out the sheeples).

  68. call me ahab says:

    bought some SDS earlier- hoping for a fade at the end of the trading hour- we’ll see what happens

    CNBC-

    put me in camp A- I think this is the recovery- you are looking at it- and is probably as good as it gets- will we have a higher SPX- possibly- but ultimately it will go down-

    if there is one reason to believe in economic recovery- please let me know-

    that is why the can can’t be kicked down the road- because we are already at the end of the road

  69. cvienne says:

    @CNBC

    “But I am shocked that no one has picked up on karen having to go skins.”

    That was the FIRST thing I thought of…But I wanted to try and be politically correct (hey – isn’t that an oxymoron)?

  70. Andy T says:

    Thor: I would never speak for Karen, but in this case “iffy” for me would mean…”it’s looking wobbly…and it’s looking wobbly right into an exact 50% retracement of the down move….maybe it’s time to get out if you’re a day trader with a long position.”

  71. ben22 says:

    Thor,

    Is that you flexing in your picture? Where is your hammer?

  72. cvienne says:

    @karen (2:17)

    Yeah – if you’re right, we make a beeline for 908

  73. cvienne says:

    This post is just to draw LEFTBACK into the mix…

    lefty – the break below 880 will come on July 14th my friend…

  74. I-Man says:

    I think he’s traveling today.

  75. karen says:

    CNBC, you know how i like to ignore you. : )

    I have a bigger question at the moment, the department stores (BG, NM and SAKS, for instance) are loaded with thousands of women’s handbags priced at well over $1k each ON SALE. Where are the buyers to come from? And the new fall bags are arriving daily.. I would love to own the new black satin grosgrain Valentino shopper to tote my macbook around in but at $1795 and 8.75% sales tax?

  76. Andy T says:

    O shit! Is peter costa reading this blog? He just talked about the H&S top and that 930 was a resistance level….

    That seals it folks…We will NOT see a H&S now…..

  77. cvienne says:

    I-man

    Were you watching that match yesterday?

  78. cvienne says:

    @karen

    I heard that CHOO and everyone else are drastically reducing the number of designs they come out with…

    So I suppose that’s their attempt to not let margins collapse, but VOLUME is clearly an issue…

  79. karen says:

    Andy, thank you, for clarifying my iffy : )
    cvienne, as per a previous LB post, yesterday i think; he is returning to ny today from someplace “sunny.” Guess he wasn’t with you, visiting your favorite clubs by evening. I can imagine the two of you together quite well.

  80. Andy T says:

    karen: are you asking for us take up a collection for you? For the black satin grosgrain Valentino…..I don’t even know what that means….

  81. ben22 says:

    karen,

    buy the bag in my state, no tax.

  82. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    Well, I will say this for the mother country. When they’ve tried to air the house out and it still stinks, they will at least say so..Lefty…

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/king-warns-of-the-long-hard-slog-to-clear-britains-debt-1718035.html

    “The Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, has warned that the nation faces a “long hard slog” to recovery, criticised the Government for running too high a level of borrowing as the nation entered the present crisis, and called on the Chancellor to produce a “credible statement” of how he plans to get the borrowing down.”

    Reminds you a little of Churchill during the War. I have yet to see one of our politicians (in a position of power, anyway) come anywhere close to this degree of honesty. Too dern many green shoots and not enough straight shootin’……

  83. Thor says:

    Ben22 – yes, that’s me flexing in the picture. It’s a Superman reference from my partner – as well as the Fat Panda I’m holding in the crook of my arm.

  84. Bruce N Tennessee says:

    I think Sunny is one of the Swedish twins….

  85. call me ahab says:

    Karen-

    is there really a difference between a fall bag and a summer bag?- and if so- why?

    just trying to understand- I wouldn’t notice a handbag ever- unless it glowed in the dark or something

  86. CNBC Sucks says:

    I know, karen. That explains your *** ****** ** ** **** and our ***** *************. But I never kiss and tell ;)

    As for your question about the handbags, you as a trader should know the price MUST come down. Or are women’s handbags too illiquid a market to anticipate a buy?

  87. I-Man says:

    @ CV:

    I DVR’d it and watched it last night. Awesome. All I gotta say is two words:

    TIM HOWARD!!!

  88. cvienne says:

    @karen

    “Guess he wasn’t with you, visiting your favorite clubs by evening. I can imagine the two of you together quite well.”

    just trying to do my part getting $$ back into the economy ;-)

  89. Thor says:

    Speaking of handbags, and OT of course. One of my all time favorite “what’s wrong with people today” moments is from last summer. I was at a discount food store and I noticed that the lady in front of me was paying with food stamps – food stamps she was talking out of her Louie Vuitton purse. I think the story speaks for itself.

  90. karen says:

    Bruce, you’ve earned my funniest comment of the day, probably week, award.
    Ahab, the fall bags are NEW.. new for fall, new colors, new designs, all new. And they’ve really outdone themselves.
    Andy, then there is the Valentino Gemme Framed Shoulder Bag, only $2,980.00. To die for, really. : )

    http://www.bergdorfgoodman.com/store/catalog/templates/P6.jhtml?itemId=cat80014&parentId=cat20062&masterId=cat261004

  91. cvienne says:

    @I-man

    Howard gets a lot of credit…There were a lot of BOMBS coming in there late in the match that he was very wise just to bat away…

    I’ll say something though, he was getting a lot of help on defense too…Not that the defense was playing all that well technically, but somehow they managed to get a head, toe, or body on a lot of flack that came shooting through the box…And there was a TON of it!

  92. dead hobo says:

    ben22 Says:
    June 25th, 2009 at 2:09 pm

    This is not intended to be rude, but I want to try to draw this out some more. When did it stop being a “real market”? Do you have a date when it became too manipulated? I’m trying to figure out how you are even defining this exactly.

    reply:
    ————
    Are you serious? Haven’t you noticed the bizarre powered-up moves since the relief rally started. The rally has been gamed since maybe S&P850. There’s no real investors in it, just computers and day traders. Low volume. Frequent medium and massive jumps on no news or horrible news, such as GM bankruptcy. Shorts are apparently afraid to seriously enter the water due to mysterious liquidity popping up and washing them away. Anyone thinking buy and hold for a few months or a couple of years is seriously uninformed.

    Insides are said to be selling at one of the highest historical rates known. Few insider buyers.

    The market and economy are seriously out of step. The economy is bad and likely to get worse before it gets better. Commodities are inflated due to speculative dollars only, not demand for the underlying.

    It’s Vegas only. Not a store of value. Not a safe place for retirement income. It’s not especially regulated. It’s basically a bet on red, with fancy charts that look mathy with obscure terminology thrown into add credibility.

    All this plus Bubblevision. OK, CNBC would hype a flaming bag of crap if it’s sponsors asked them to, regardless of the market. They don’t count.

  93. karen says:

    thor, surely it was a fake… most of them are!

  94. ben22 says:

    Thor,

    Let’s just pretend that bag was a fake as to not upset ourselves about shit like that. One more question about your picture, do you have a Mohawk?

    I used to have one when I ran XC. Sadly, that is not even close to appropriate for my job.

    Speaking of bags, I wanted to buy a nice bag for myself for when I go out as I hate carrying a wallet and I’m not a big fan of money clips. Any ideas, seems like all you guys are really into fashion. lol.

  95. call me ahab says:

    thor-

    probably a knockoff from Hong Kong- got to be stylish no matter the occasion or current impoverished status-

    Karen-

    get a Northface backpack- all the rage I hear- all the women are carrying them- and only $50

  96. call me ahab says:

    b22-

    money clip and one credit card is all I ever carry- but a cool manbag- well- I don’t know- I could change my mind

  97. I-Man says:

    Long Man Purse.

  98. cvienne says:

    @karen

    For the same price you could fly to Italy and go to the “outlets” off the A1 near FIRENZE…

    The Prada, Jill Sander outlet is off the Valdarno exit, & the Pucci, D&G, Armani, Gucci outlets are off the Cilegi exits…Cavalli is inbetween…

    I thought you were going to Venice…Might as well make a side trip…

  99. call me ahab says:

    looks like we are getting some buying into the close