Yesterday, we discussed why the Case Shiller Index, which fell 18%, was not yet cause for celebration.

Regular TBP reader Steve Barry created this chart last year which projected forward the ongoing losses for Case Shiller; We first ran this back in December, and it  ran all over the internet (mostly without attribution).

Well, its time to update this. Here is Steve’s most recent version:


Chart courtesy of the NYT, as modified by Steve Barry


Category: Credit, Real Estate

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

124 Responses to “Updated: Case-Shiller 100-Year Chart”

  1. Mannwich says:

    @ahab: Bingo. Spent the first 29 years of my life there. Nice catch. I don’t say “packi” (for liquor store) though. Used to….

  2. Andy T says:

    Ahab: “Shit the bed” is definitely a naval/maritime colloquialism….I think Mannwich may be revealing himself as someone with a maritime background, or from a family of sailors….

    It’s a great term….

  3. dmlopr says:

    Property rights have taken such a beating the last 25 years, its rediculous. The “home ownership is a great investment crowd” are often the same people trying to tell me what to do with my property. Can you put a price on that?

  4. Mannwich says:

    @Andy T: No Navy or military background but I did grow up in a military town (Ayer/Fort Devens, which is now closed) in MA and went to school with military kids.

  5. uno says:

    Just moved into a condo right on the lake for 11%+ less than ask. I figure there’ll be an opportunity for a replay on an annual basis.

  6. Transor Z says:

    Not for nothing but “shit the bed” is Boston. :)

  7. I-Man says:

    @ Manny:

    Re: Credit Suisse, IYR, SRS

    It matters not.

    What does matter, is that we are long SRS when they begin to dump the large blocks of IYR that they hold, or potentially hold, or whatever.

    Want to feel confident about owning SRS?

    Look at a daily chart of IYR.

  8. cvienne says:


    “Just moved into a condo right on the lake for 11%+ less than ask”

    Just think, if you’d have gotten the one IN the lake, you’d ALREADY be underwater!

  9. call me ahab says:


    your cracking me up- I grew up saying “package store” meaning liquor store and when I say it my kids laugh at me-

    now that I live in Virginny- it’s the ABC store- (state owned and controlled)

  10. I-Man says:


    I’m from VA (Williamsburg to be precise) man- where are you at?

  11. The Curmudgeon says:

    Somebody (I think Mannwich) asked for something green-shootie from a shill. Everyone knows that I’m an unapologetic optimist about our economy and its sound structural foundations, with an abiding faith in our Great Leader to make things right. So, here’s one of those green chute things:

    July 1 (Bloomberg) — U.S. mortgage applications fell last week by the most since February, defying efforts by President Barack Obama’s administration to revive the housing market.

    The Mortgage Bankers Association’s index of applications to purchase a home or refinance a loan dropped 19 percent to 444.8 in the week ended June 26 from 548.2 the prior week. The group’s refinancing gauge declined 30 percent to the lowest in seven months, while the index of purchases fell 4.5 percent.

    Things must be getting progressively better if the government can’t even fucking give away its own money. ($1.25 trillion of fed largesse directed at housing this year).

    Yeah, “every little thing’s gonna be alright”, but only in a Bob Marley, cosmic sense. The US, in the meantime, well, maybe that’s what Bob was alluding to.

  12. Mannwich says:

    @Curm: Thanks a lot. Auto numbers coming out (besides maybe Ford) don’t look so green shooty either. Chrysler down 42%, GM 33%, but, hey, they were definitely worth saving with all that bailout money. Why not? It’s all just Monopoly money now, right?

  13. call me ahab says:


    dude- live about 20 miles outside of DC- drive by Williamsburg all the time on my way to the Outer Banks- did the obligatory Williamsburg tour many moons ago- also Busch Gardens of course

  14. The Curmudgeon says:

    @I-man and Ahab:

    I learned how to test-fly helicopters at Ft. Eustis many years ago. I was there in the fall, into winter. Used to drink at the Yorktown Pub down by the river. Beautiful place.

  15. I-Man says:

    Oh… the OBX… I miss that place so much. We used to go there for our beach vacation every year.

    I love me some SE VA.

    They dont like revolutionary white rastas there though… so I had to bounce to the Pacific NW.

  16. Transor Z says:

    May private residential construction spending was down 34% YoY.

  17. Transor Z says:

    Hey Barry,

    According to the NY Fed:

    Average FICO score of sub-prime borrowers under water is slightly higher than sub-prime mortgage borrowers with equity. (see Table 4 on Page 8)

    That’s wild.

  18. Transor Z says:

    Damn sunglasses face. Page 8

  19. [...] Barry Ritholtz’s reader Steve Barry has updated the New York Times chart of Case Shiller housing prices to account for the latest data (Apr…. [...]

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  21. Jim Giles says:

    If someone bought a home for $200,000 in February of this year in a suburb of Jackson, MS what does Steve’s projection say about what the home value will be when home prices return to those 1950′s levels?

    Why aren’t more ‘booms/bubbles’ possible instead of a return to those 1950 levels?

    What will home owners do who have all that negative equity?

    Has Professor Shiller responded to Steve’s updated projection?

  22. B. Madoff says:

    It seems to me that for one to do an apples to apples comparison one should look at cost per square foot of both the house and the lot from 1900-2009. Or just the house if the lot size is the same.

  23. jimperm says:

    It seems like most people want to see home prices rise. How far will home prices fall before bottoming? Very simple. Look at the median on Schiller’s chart. When you have a long term chart and prices of something falls, the price will normally fall till it is as far BELOW the median as it was ABOVE the median. If/when this holds true, we will see home prices fall way below any place on the chart. Stabilize? No. It won’t happen. Will we fall straight down? Not usually. There will be updrafts for whatever reason. The general trend will be down for many years until we offset the rise above the median. Bottom line. Housing prices will fall way more than ANYONE would like to believe. Sometime in the future, housing will be cheaper than ANYTIME in recorded history. This is simply nature. Nature has a way of balancing things out.

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