Read it here 1st: Truest Picture of Excess Labor Supply
Back in July, we discussed the “truest picture of excess labor supply” — the number of Unemployed per Job Openings. During the 2001 recession, the ratio of jobless people to openings was little more than double; in early 2009, job seekers outnumbered jobs four-to-one.
According to a front page Sunday NYT has article, that ratio has now hit an all time record:
“Job seekers now outnumber openings six to one, the worst ratio since the government began tracking open positions in 2000. According to the Labor Department’s latest numbers, from July, only 2.4 million full-time permanent jobs were open, with 14.5 million people officially unemployed.
And even though the pace of layoffs is slowing, many companies remain anxious about growth prospects in the months ahead, making them reluctant to add to their payrolls.
The dearth of jobs reflects the caution of many American businesses when no one knows what will emerge to propel the economy. With unemployment at 9.7 percent nationwide, the shortage of paychecks is both a cause and an effect of weak hiring.”
Nothing like having a 4 month jump on the big boys . . .
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courtesy of NYT
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Previously:
The Truest Picture of Excess Labor Supply (July 1st, 2009)
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/the-truest-picture-of-excess-labor-supply/
Wage Deflation in Our Midst (July 1st, 2009)
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/07/wage-deflation-in-our-midst/
Source:
U.S. Job Seekers Exceed Openings by Record Ratio
PETER S. GOODMAN
NYT, September 26, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/27/business/economy/27jobs.html
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September 27th, 2009 at 9:05 am
Shrinking job opportunities have assailed virtually every industry this year. Since the end of 2008, job openings have diminished 47 percent in manufacturing, 37 percent in construction and 22 percent in retail. Even in education and health services — faster-growing areas in which many unemployed people have trained for new careers — job openings have dropped 21 percent this year. Despite the passage of a stimulus spending package aimed at shoring up state and local coffers, government job openings have diminished 17 percent this year.
September 27th, 2009 at 11:04 am
RM had another nice chart a few weeks ago…
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/long-term-unemployment-rate/
I can’t wait to see how they spin this on Friday…
September 27th, 2009 at 11:05 am
But . . . but . . .
. . . Bernanke says the “recession” is over!
Who ya’ gonna trust — Bernanke or your own lying eyes?
September 27th, 2009 at 11:21 am
you know, all the talk of ‘deregulation’ has me mystified.
given the context with which that term has been used, over the recent past, into to today, one would think that the current state of the Economy was a textbook example of Laissez-Faire, come to fruition, in THX (now with Dolby SurroundSound 6.1).
are We serious?
has Anybody bothered to spy the Federal Register, recently? ever?
http://www.thefederalregister.com/
http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/index.html
LSS: instead of asking about the state of the current economy, maybe We should be asking, whether, or not, the current Economy Is the State (?)
IOW, a lot of what is going down is being aided, and abetted, by State Fiat (and, obviously, fueled by more of its ilk-Fiat Currency).
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/Fiat
September 27th, 2009 at 11:41 am
This trend seems to have been building for a lot longer than the last 8 years.
From 1948 through 1966 the average monthly unemployment % was 4.9 vs 6.6% from 1975-1999. Almost every other meaningful measure of economic strength looks worse when comparing these two periods. The only thing that is much better is the stock market performance, it’s fooled people into thinking we had some special new economic growth when we never did. The public sector job growth has completely dominated that of the private sector in the last 10 years. These are not good trends.
September 27th, 2009 at 11:45 am
When will Ebay begin auctioning jobs to the lowest bidder?
September 27th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
@Winston: That is priceless, except it might actually happen. I shouldn’t laugh.
September 27th, 2009 at 12:11 pm
Here’s hoping for the second Republic of the United States (France is now on their fifth).
At some point people will figure out elections really don’t change things.
September 27th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
@JRobie,
Actually, I was thinking that if we hold out long enough, deregulate vigorously enough, and lower taxes on the rich far enough we may be able to overcome the French Revolution and all the trouble that caused.
September 27th, 2009 at 12:23 pm
MEH,
It wasn’t 100% deregulation. It wasn’t 100% Laissez-Faire. But, the actions taken in the past 30 years were piecemeal moves in that direction. And it was engineered by Laissez-Faire proponents. These piecemeal deregulatory actions moved us from firmer ground to thin ice.
What would you call this if not “deregulatory”?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/fed-and-subprime-lendng-watchdog-that.html
Maybe we’re defining terms differently. But, that’s how I see it.
September 27th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
@JRobie
“Here’s hoping for the second Republic of the United States (France is now on their fifth). ”
—
The present Administration is working on that forthwith…
September 27th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
Two questions: a) When will the situation get so bad that the HR people get their pink slips
and b) Who gives the human resource people their pink slips?
September 27th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
It’s the jobs, stupid!
September 27th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
Okay but…go to the article…see that lady on the far right – Suzy…. check out the hair. Why oh why would I care what she had to say about Milan’s fashion week?
September 27th, 2009 at 12:43 pm
Don’t worry – it’s a lagging indicator – like household income, discretionary spending – stuff like that
September 27th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
And MEH, I don’t rule out the possibility that we would’ve reached firmer ground again had we crossed the thin ice quickly, rather than whistle about good times all into spring.
September 27th, 2009 at 12:47 pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Early-retirements-strain-apf-161066651.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=
Another issue…
“Early Retirements Strain Social Security System”
“The increase in early retirements is hurting Social Security’s short-term finances, already strained from the loss of 6.9 million jobs. “
September 27th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
@mathman
“Who gives the human resource people their pink slips?”
Great point…It has always been a question for me… Before there was “sliced bread”, what WAS the best thing ever?
September 27th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
Anecdotal evidence from comments at another site:
“I have a friend who was a sales manager at a hotel who made $120K last year. He was laid off because of the economy. Mind you, 2008 was pretty awful, and this was before the system melted down in October.
He got hired in the identical position by another hotel for $60K “just to get by”. The same hotel closed another branch about 5 miles away and they hired the sales manager from the closed site. So he lost his job and they hired back this other person. For 36K.”
So I guess that is what they mean by “trickle down”?
September 27th, 2009 at 1:00 pm
@jc
“It’s the jobs, stupid!”
Jobs??? We don’t need no stinkin jobs! Obama, on March 4th, 2009 created the NEW ECONOMY (by telling all the yo-yo’s that stocks were cheap)…
Then, he proceeded to let the Fed (directly or indirectly) fund the iBanks with free capital (meanwhile collapsing the dollar), to create the illusion of “wealth” (via a stock market rally)…
The result? Well, since it doesn’t PAY to hold or save cash anymore (and FORCES you to g@mble), it has created the aforementioned stock market rally, & thus has propped up spirits)…What a GENIUS!
Now of course, none of this is TRUE INVESTMENT, and therefore will not create anything REAL down the road, so, unfortunately the only thing left to do is to keep going along with what you started…
I propose the NEW AMERICA is one in which each American, starting on January 1st of each year, is granted a $5,000 “trading account”…
Winner take all! That’s how we roll!
September 27th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
wunsa-
see: [FR Doc E9-23150] 1. Amendment to Egg Research and Promotion Order and Regulations To Increase the
This proposed rule would amend the Egg Research and Promotion Order to increase the assessment rate on egg producers paying assessments to the American Egg Board (AEB) from 10 cents to 15 cents per 30dozen case of commercial eggs, provided the increase is approved by egg producers voting in a referendum. This proposal would also make a conforming
Published: 2009-09-25 DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE : Agricultural Marketing Service
from: http://www.thefederalregister.com/ the First link I posted, above..
and, also above, now w/edits!, this: “given the context(vitually, None) with which that term has been used, over the recent past, into to today, one would think that the current state of the Economy was a textbook example of Laissez-Faire…
maybe that helps clarify..IOW, it goes way beyond, just, ‘Banking y Finance’..
September 27th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Cv..
yeah its all obama fault.
there was nothing wrong in the way industry looted the country by transferring wealth from the common folks to the controllers….such that right now everyone who need to run the economy is broke….and those who have the money are sitting on it with no intent of tricking it down.
simple question to all: if most americans took debt and spent it, where did the money go?
if the auto industry is totally broke, the banks are broke etc… who has that money?
September 27th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
controllers= whoever lobbies to get the law written to benefit them.
btw it does feel like american prosperity got distributed throught the globe.
for example chinese and indians used to have horrible poverty levels….but not so anymore. maybe the stuff we bought with our money made by them provided them with some improvement in quality of life(spending power).
its too bad that they are not rich enough to pay for software license(95% of them use pirated/subsidised since they cannot afford it yet)….which is one of our the biggest exports.
September 27th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
@techy
I have no doubt of two things…
1. At present, there is no money “tricking” down… Instead, there is another form of “tricking” going on (actually TWO different forms – Sunday’s puzzle will require the game player to figure out what those two forms of “tricking” are)…
2. You will never win a spelling bee…
September 27th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
Re: laissez faire, deregulation:
In the last week or so, Humana sent out a mailer to its insureds telling them that the proposed health reform bills could cause them to lose their Medicare Advantage benefits–a true statement, protected, one would think, under the first amendment.* Almost immediately, the federal Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services sent Humana a cease and desist letter. The agency acted at the behest of Sen. Max Baucus, who is the sponsor of one such bill.
See here for details: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204488304574427200839672342.html
Doesn’t seem like laissez faire to me. More like Peronism, Chavismo, Mexico under the PRI, Italy under Mussolini.
* Don’t tell me Humana loses its rights because it gets government money. AARP gets money through the same program and is buying advertising about health reform. AARP has yet to get a cease and desist letter. Think that’s because AARP is advertising in favor of health reform?
Richard
September 27th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
CV..
frankly everything i type is quick …and as long as i can communicate my thoughts…who cares about spelling and grammer.
but anybody has any thoughts about my previous two posts? (where did the money go?)
September 27th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
winston
Sounds a lot like the Boston Hyatt hotels that fired their whole housekeeping staff and replaced them with new workers making $8/hr and no benefits; roughly half the wage of the fired staff and loss of bennies.
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2009/09/18/hundreds_attend_rally_for_fired_hyatt_housekeepers/?p1=Well_MostPop_Emailed6
Ouch, that’s some serious wage deflation. And they had trained their replacements under the guise that they were vacation fill-ins. Insult to injury.
And apparently (though unverified) they’re expecting the new staff to clean twice the rooms as was expected before. So there’s a quadrupling in “productivity” right there. Of course the ugly truth is that there’s no way they’ll be able to effectively clean twice the rooms. At that pace they’ll burn through more workers than they can get at that wage.
They apparently imported the workers for the new staff from Georgia (yes, our GA). Those folks are going to be unhappily surprised when they realize that $8/hr doesn’t go as far in Boston as it does in GA (to say the least).
September 27th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
“The public sector job growth has completely dominated that of the private sector in the last 10 years. These are not good trends.”
It is however natural outcome of low growth. When there’s no profit to be had, the slack will always be taken up by the only entity capable of investing at a loss and remaining solvent.
At least, that will be the case as long as interest rates cannot go below 0%.
September 27th, 2009 at 2:15 pm
richard..
thats really sad….this whole health care issue has been such a debacle…
in the first place they should not have tried to reduce benefits….that goes against anything that gets done in any democracy….people dont like free stuff taken away :)
second IMO the big issue in healthcare is the cost of education, time taken for the education and training…..
if it cost $200k to become a doctor….with 6-7 years of college education, and three years of residency…..how the hell can the docs make even without billing high?
but the existing hospitals have total control over the system….they decide how many residence will be trained every year….and also they overwork the new residence upto 80hr/week.
in most countries….it takes only 5 years of college with less than half the cost (those degrees are recognized over here same as USA degree)
it takes about 6 years even for nursing and pharmacy…..with high costs.
i have not heard from anyone about making improvement in these areas?
india has the system where private and public co-exist, and most health care is so cheap you dont need insurance.
because there is over abundance of people in health care…doctors, nurses,pharmacies…make less money than software programmers.
but maybe its fault of obama that it costs $15k/year for a family insurance over here ;)
September 27th, 2009 at 2:21 pm
@ Richard,
I, for one, have nothing but warm fuzzy feelings for our forefathers who had the prescience to grant Constitutional protections to the humanistic, philanthropic health-insurance corporations in order to protect them from the overwhelming evil and power of Medicare and its bought-and-paid-for Senators.
Makes me want to whistle God Bless America or something….
September 27th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
scepticus,
w/this: “When there’s no profit to be had, the slack will always be taken up by the only entity capable of investing at a loss and remaining solvent.”
you should make sure that Iceland gets the Memo..I’m sure it’ll come as welcomed relief.
Winnie,
I’m failing to see the validity of your point, are you being serious?
this: “Humana sent out a mailer to its insureds telling them that the proposed health reform bills could cause them to lose their Medicare Advantage benefits–a true statement” to me, anyways, is a True statement, why should such be squelched by HHS/the USG?
September 27th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
Techy,
“and as long as i can communicate my thoughts…who cares about spelling and grammer.” Your point is understood, but perhaps your should re-think that.
For the most part I am a jeans and tee shirt dude, but at work I dress nice, slacks, dress shirt, shoes and occasionally a tie. Does dressing nice make me a better, smarter more capable employee – HELL NO!!! But people listen better and people treat me with more respect because of the way I dress – You are communicating on the interweb, the only reflection people have of you is your writing.
So I ask you who do you believe will get a better reception, the person who is willing spell and articulate, or the person who putting their thoughts out?
You have good thoughts, but taking the little extra time to prepare and percent them is not a bad thing.
(Second time posting – first on got lost, maybe a word or two is making it get stuck in the filter.)
September 27th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Test post…. Tried to post, not happening…..This is just a test…….
If it had been an actual post, there would be words and stuff, that may or may not have had any meaning.
Again this is only a test.
September 27th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
Mark,
Just a little tongue-in-cheek humor…. honestly, health-insurance corporations needing Constitutional protection from the very people they own – Congress?
September 27th, 2009 at 2:42 pm
Techy,
“and as long as i can communicate my thoughts…who cares about spelling and grammer.” Your point is understood, but perhaps your should re-think that.
For the most part I am a jeans and tee shirt dude, but at work I dress nice, slacks, dress shirt, shoes and occasionally a tie. Does dressing nice make me a better, smarter more capable employee – HECK NO!!! But people listen better and people treat me with more respect because of the way I dress – You are communicating on the interweb, the only reflection people have of you is your writing.
So I ask you who do you believe will get a better reception, the person who is willing spell and articulate, or the person who putting their thoughts out?
You have good thoughts, but taking the little extra time to prepare and persent them is not a bad thing.
September 27th, 2009 at 2:45 pm
mark, iceland is an excellent example of a country that let its private sector expand to an unreasonable size relative to its public sector.
as with all things, a degree of balance is normally the best approach, with the exact point determined by a number of important variables, of which growth rates is but one.
September 27th, 2009 at 2:52 pm
post not appearing…maybe caught by aut-spam-filter..test post
September 27th, 2009 at 2:59 pm
Winnie,
the health-insurance co.s may have undo influence on Congression legislation, no doubt, but as richard, above, gave rise to: “Some Pigs are more equal than other Pigs”..
http://www.sparknotes.com/lit/animalfarm/
we should be careful, pretty soon we’ll have own version of Tokyo Rose telling us: “The search for Truth is futile.” (with a cutaway to some chap telling us: “The Economy has made it through its rough-patch, Green Shoots are to be seen, the rebound is on its way..”
~
scepticus,
tell us, then, the optimal Interest Rate for the Economy, at this juncture (?)
September 27th, 2009 at 3:00 pm
sorry for the poor syntax, I’ll blame it on techy, he’s a bad influence (;
September 27th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
@MEH
The MEH syntax, is, refreshing, (and unique)…
BTW – I understand that spelling grammar with an “e” gets subsequent posts caught up in WORD PRESS… Any truth to that rumor?
September 27th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
“Trust me…I’m a DOCTOR”
Kelsey Grammer
September 27th, 2009 at 3:13 pm
cv,
like this: “on Congression legislation” missing the -al
and: “we’ll have own version” missing the ‘our’
September 27th, 2009 at 3:18 pm
@cveinne – change a “grammer” to grammer in a post I am trying to make, still nothing.
And if that were the case techy could not have posted “who cares about spelling and grammer.”
And for what it is worth I am SOOOOOO Glad I went with Vick instead of Mark Sanchez….Jeez Luis…..
September 27th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
@mark “tell us, then, the optimal Interest Rate for the Economy, at this juncture”
IMO that depends entirely on whether you want the private or public sector to drive investment.
Assuming the former, it clearly has to be negative. Assuming the latter, the short term risk free rate should be zero. The latter would likely result in any case in negative real rates.
What would ensue operationally in terms of term structure etc from either choice is a matter for debate and speculation since we have no precedents. But let us be quite clear, it’s going to be one or the other.
September 27th, 2009 at 3:30 pm
MEH, those are good observations. Yes, we have a mess. My point is: the mess is already there. If you/we want to start deconstructing it, when considering each proposed change — repealing a law or deciding not to enforce a law on the books — we must consider the system holistically. Otherwise, we risk leaving the system in a worse or more unstable condition than when we found it.
I’m a software designer/developer and can’t help comparing this financial clusterf*ck to personal experiences in my own field. [I was about to vent. But, I'm getting angry as I type and won't know when to finish. ;-) ...Analogies deleted.]
September 27th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
wunsa-
w/this: “the mess is already there.”…”we must consider the system holistically.”
“Otherwise, we risk leaving the system in a worse or more unstable condition than when we found it.”
I’d concur.
Personally, the best way, to me, to write a new OS is by starting with a clean sheet of paper. We know, in the IT-sphere, from MSFT that spaghetti-code, even with a fine Marinara sauce, leads to bloat.
So as we’ve seen with Legislation from D.C., and its disciples in the States, Territories, Counties, Cities, Localities, and, other, unenumerated rule-making bodies of the State, and their Proxies.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/disciple
Personally, I think we should take a page from Linux’ development, take that multi-Month Nationwide vacay, understand the republican form Government, in general, and the 9th, and 10th, Amendments to the Constitution( to say nothing of the Constitution, itself), in specific, and go for a Re-Write..
http://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/constitution.billofrights.html
We can choose to write the Future, or we can continue to have it written for us..with the latter, to borrow from the MMOG-world, we will, as we’ve been, continue to get Pwned.
http://clusty.com/search?input-form=clusty-simple&v%3Asources=webplus&query=MMOG
September 27th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
techy i think our money went to pay for bonuses at wall street companies and to help other countries (China and India) reduce their poverty rates (semi win) and keep their sheople under control (that was win for them). for us? not much was gained from the deflating incomes (going on for decades now) and the job losses (almost a decade now!but remember they kept saying that new jobs were just around the corner. not). and the deflating of the dollaw has been going on since what 2002?
September 27th, 2009 at 4:37 pm
@ techy,
“simple question to all: if most americans took debt and spent it, where did the money go?”
Plastics.
September 27th, 2009 at 4:51 pm
“Two recent surveys of newspaper help-wanted advertisements and of employers’ inclinations to add workers were at their lowest levels on record, noted Andrew Tilton, a Goldman Sachs economist.”
While I’m certain that it’s bad enough out there to make people’s eyes bleed, I definitely challenge this methodology. “Newspaper help-wanted ads?” Who even reads the newspaper anymore (besides me)? I don’t know a single person who has ever gotten a job via a newspaper help-wanted ad. Everyone I know got their job through some form of an internet job posting–either a vacancy announcement posted on the firm’s website, and increasingly, on Craigslist. In fact, one of my friends (a chemical engineer) recently obtained a good job at an R+D firm through Craigslist.
I’d be curious about how internet-savvy these surveys are.
September 27th, 2009 at 5:31 pm
@franklin411
Based on cvienne’s assessment of “teachers” & “professors” these days, I’m surprised that anyone can even read (newspapers or otherwise)…
…let alone SPELL
September 27th, 2009 at 5:50 pm
Interesting charts … looking at the clear tendency (“clear” given that it encompasses such a limited span of history) for unemployment to recede at a slower rate than it arrived, I would guess that we will be back at about 9 million unemployed (coincidentally as bad as things got during the dot-com recession) sometime well past the 2012 elections — maybe past the 2016 elections, given the increasing population.
This is — aside from the ongoing Great Recession — a continuing trend, a result of technology and automation decreasing the available jobs while population increases continue to expand the supply of job-seekers, and the economy increasingly fails to keep up by inventing new ways for people to earn a basic living. This is a problem that to the best of my knowledge, nobody in government, industry, or academia is addressing, instead choosing to hide behind the myth of “new jobs spring up from the limitless font of capitalism”. Alternatively, the academics tout their abilities to re-educate the unemployed to perform work they are unable to at present. But the data shows these approaches to be the myths that they are.
The “answer” — such as it is — appears to be to employ more people via vast bureaucracies of non-productivity, wrapped in a layer of highly productive automation and near-zero-wage labor.
Surely there is a better solution than this?
September 27th, 2009 at 5:58 pm
there is a school of thought that goes like this:
1. capitalist driven growth happens
2. profits are the difference between economic growth and wages growth
3. 2 leads inexorably to severe income inequality
4. 3 leads to falling relative purchasing power of consumers relative to producers. Capitalist/rich folks have a saving rate near 1.0. They re-invest this. joe6pack has a saving rate near 0. consumers no longer have the purchasing power to buy up output at prices which sustain profits.
5. 4 leads to falling interest rates, as a surfeit of investment compounds with falling demand
6. consumer credit props up consumer purchasing
7. depression.
Last time income inequality was as high as 2007, was 1929:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Share_top_1%25.jpg
Add in the fact that the emrgence of the pensions industry made everyone into capitalists (or at least wannabe rentiers for their twilight years), and there’s a pretty watertight explaination right there.
September 27th, 2009 at 6:10 pm
@f411
All kidding aside professor…
Is your point that that the main reason people are unemployed at the moment is because they they are still looking in newspapers???? or not on Craigslist????
It’s impossible that the lack of jobs are due to macroeconomic factors… Right?
Here… In case you all missed, I started this thread by digging this up…
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/09/long-term-unemployment-rate/
How many jobs did they say they were going to “create”, or “save” (in the latter version) by ramrodding 800 billion of stimulus through last February?…
I guess they’re all going to be Christmas retail jobs… time is running out…tickticktickticktick…
As soon as the Wall St. bonuses are paid out (as a “thank you” for campaign contributions), it’ll all square up…
September 27th, 2009 at 6:14 pm
MEH,
The one thing I’d add is that someone painstakingly understand how the current mess functions and then write a painstakingly detailed plan to migrate us from the existing codebase to the new one, during a planned outage.
We rarely take the time to plan for phased-in changes, which is why policy changes (e.g., NAFTA/globalization) hurt so many “unimportant” people in the process. “The details” don’t seem to be “sexy” work for people who lack grit.
September 27th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
@wunsa
“We rarely take the time to plan for phased-in changes, which is why policy changes (e.g., NAFTA/globalization) hurt so many “unimportant” people in the process. “The details” don’t seem to be “sexy” work for people who lack grit.”
—
One of these days people are going to understand me, “the farmer”, when I say this…
There’s no such thing as “phasing in” and “phasing out” in reference to where we are headed… There IS NO SEXY WORK…
There’s GRITTY work… all kinds of it… I’ve learned to embrace the horror :-)
September 27th, 2009 at 6:46 pm
“the horror, the horror”- Mr. Kurtz-
and i counter- who cares about jobs- overrated
just start a business- get a box of business cards- and wait for the phone calls to roll in-
one more bit of advice- the indices will lead the way- remember that and you will never need to work for a living-
as easy as shooting fish in a barrel- i heard that somewhere- (maybe here)- must be true
September 27th, 2009 at 7:05 pm
Get a job ?
nearly impossible.
Creating your own income?
what’s stopping ya ?
September 27th, 2009 at 7:45 pm
I’m confused, ahab. Who’s methods are you disagreeing with? (Or just not seeing?)
September 27th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
Yip yip yip yip yip yip yip yip
Mum mum mum mum mum mum
Get a job
Sha na na na, sha na na na na
Every morning about this time
she get me out of my bed
a-crying get a job.
After breakfast, everyday,
she throws the want ads right my way
And never fails to say…
Get a job
Sha na na na, sha na na na na
Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
Yip yip yip yip yip yip yip yip
Mum mum mum mum mum mum
Get a job
Sha na na na, sha na na na na
And when I get the paper
I read it through and through
And my girl never fails to say
If there is any work for me-eee-e-e-eeeeee
And when I go back to the house
I hear the woman’s mouth
Preaching and a crying,
Tell me that I’m lying ’bout a job
That I never could find.
Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
Sha na na na, sha na na na na,
Yip yip yip yip yip yip yip yip
Mum mum mum mum mum mum
Get a job Sha na na na, sha na na na na
September 27th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
Here… if you’re too lazy because there are a dearth of SEXY JOBS out there…
Simply be entertained (along with the rest of the VOTERS), while those unemployment benefits keep rolling in and extended…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hkJL6wRBE8
September 27th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
From what I’ve read into this and facts from other sites… There’s going to be lots of people eating cold beans and rice for a very long time.
According to BLS there are about 140M jobs available @ 9.7 unemployment rate. But they also state the unemployment rate will exceed 10% into next year. Lets fast forward a month or 3 and round this unemployed number to 16M. (+ or – a million won’t matter now, you’ll see why later)
The US needs to create about 125K jobs per month, or 1.5M/year as people enter the work force.
So far, if you average 2009 monthly SAAR data, it comes to -480K. But lets forget that and give them a glorious gift and say by the end of 2009, they actually reach their 125K/month job creation. Also, lets say the month after, they magically double this job creation number to 250K.
With this magical instant number of 250K people finding new jobs each month, it would still take about 48 months for the unemployment rate to reach 7 1/2%,
32 months to reach 5%.
September 27th, 2009 at 8:00 pm
Artists of “Get a Job”… The Silhouettes”
Dictionary: sil·hou·ette (sĭl’ū-ĕt’)
n.
1. A drawing consisting of the OUTLINE of something, especially a human profile, filled in with a solid color.
2. An outline that appears dark against a light background.
September 27th, 2009 at 8:04 pm
cvienne,
What’s the end state? H+ is coming in our lifetimes. When it comes, there will be no “job” that one human can perform for another human at a lesser cost than a bot. All jobs will be obsolete, except for: priest, politician, prostitute, policeman, farmer, and physician. And maybe not them either, after a while.
So, what’s the end state? My recommendation, which I conceived independently, would look kinda like this:
http://www.amazon.com/Our-Hands-Replace-Welfare-State/dp/0844742236/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1254095281&sr=1-5
The H+ era raises incredibly interesting issues. For instance:
- Medicare won’t cost nearly what we expect, because we won’t be paying for doctors’ and nurses’ salaries. Have statisticians considered that in their Medicare calculations?
- Since no one will be able to even *pretend* that they “earned” their income/wealth after that, how are we going to share the wealth generated by the system itself? Via per capita dividends? Or will the top 1% figure out another way to keep 50% to themselves and create scarcity for the rest?
H+ is coming in our lifetimes. With every increase in automation, it’s tougher for humans to compete. We should all start thinking about how what kind of world we want our machines to create for us.
September 27th, 2009 at 8:22 pm
wunsacon-
dude- no method- making light of a certain H Wanger- who has stated on many occasions- that the indices will lead the way-
no idea what it means- just gives me a chuckle
cv-
how ’bout those skins- only awesome :-) the fact that it was as close as it was with the powerhouse team of the Lions- makes me proud-
but your Ravens- dude- that team is for real
September 27th, 2009 at 8:26 pm
@wunsa
…Wait a sec while I respond… I have to wait and watch Faith Hill while she sings a song to allow Americans to whistle by the grave for an evening…
OK it’s over…
(you said) “All jobs will be obsolete”… (I respond) That’s basically it…
I’m sorry to be cryptic, but what else do you need to know?
September 27th, 2009 at 8:27 pm
Excess labor supply AND excess condos, even in NYC, where “real estate prices never go down”. Not making any more prime land in NYC seems to not matter. What a shocker.
“But 10 months after the much-publicized — and much-debated — Meier building opened, most of that stage remains devoid of actors. On the side of the building facing their terrace, Mr. Vader and Mr. Henderson said, there is not a single person living on the 9th, 10th, 12th, 14th or 15th floors. While the developers say half of the building’s 99 units have been sold, the real estate Web site StreetEasy.com documents only 25 closings through public records. When the sun falls, the view from Mel and Bob’s terrace — or, for that matter, from the storied Grand Army Plaza — is not unlike a Christmas tree stripped of all but a handful of lights.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/27/nyregion/27meier.html?_r=1
September 27th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
NIKKEI’s opening this evening less than, um, “stellar”………
September 27th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
@ahab
My Man, have you calculated yet…I HAVEN’T TALLIED, but I think my gut NFL Unit picks are, like, 20-2 as we speak…
Yes, MY RAVENS are for real… Don’t make too much about a home win over the Browns though… The Browns haven’t scored an offensive touchdown since Week 11 of last year…
Look it up… That’s ZERO OFFENSIVE TD’s IN 9 NFL GAMES…
September 27th, 2009 at 8:31 pm
@cvienne & ahab: Ravens look great, but they’re going down next weekend in Foxboro. Pats showing signs of putting it together. I say they break out next week and throttle the Rave’s.
September 27th, 2009 at 8:32 pm
@Manny
Dude, you’re in the fight of your life in the Ritholtz FF League tonight… Therefore you don’t have the luxury of focusing on Nikkei futures…
Meanwhile, cvienne & Andy T are cruising to victories…
September 27th, 2009 at 8:35 pm
@Manny
Re: Ravens vs. Patriots…
Huckleberry – I don’t want to initiate too early on this (until I read the injury reports – or, more importantly, get a sense of who GUIDO has his money on next week)…
But at this moment in time, it’s HARD to bet against the Ravens…
September 27th, 2009 at 8:35 pm
@cvienne: Yes, but I have Wayne AND Clark going tonight, while my opponent only has Addai. Hopefully Manning has a big night and I should be all set.
September 27th, 2009 at 8:37 pm
@cvienne: Never too early to talk NFL smack!
September 27th, 2009 at 8:39 pm
Thought this was interesting…..
“Is Jeff Macke the Next Lenny Dykstra?”
http://wcvarones.blogspot.com/2009/09/is-jeff-macke-broke.html
September 27th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
@Manny
cvienne thus handicaps tonights game at 6-1 (in favor of Manny)…
In addition, cvienne places a $100,000 bet at 1:5 odds on Mannwich (laying half a mil to win $100,000), on MANNWICH (who will thus be TIED with cvienne at the top of the Ritholtz league after week 3)…
September 27th, 2009 at 8:46 pm
@Manny
DOH!
September 27th, 2009 at 9:02 pm
Manny, LOL. “All hat and no cattle”.
September 27th, 2009 at 9:10 pm
And it was truely genious of me to start Vick got a whole 1.7o out of him.
Next week will be my break out week and land in the top 3 of the FF league
September 27th, 2009 at 9:37 pm
The canary in the Asian coalmine may be chirping a little bit.
But the indices will just lead the way.
September 27th, 2009 at 9:47 pm
Couple of factoids.
1) Corporate HR departments have begun shortening the posting time of non-managerial job vacancies to 7 days due to overwhelming numbers of applicants.
2) Someone above mentioned bidding for jobs on eBay. Already happening in the legal profession for some entry level/law clerking positions.
September 27th, 2009 at 10:04 pm
Techy – 1. India is still one of the most poverty stricken places on the planet – yes, they still have a lot of poor people, they still do, more than any other place on the planet.
2. Pharmacists and many nurses make quite a bit more than a programmer does – I happen to work on a floor full of programmer and am in a relationship with a pharmacist, no comparison whatsoever on salary. Salaries for programmers have been dropping steadily for the last 10 years (thanks India!!) and they continue to do so.
3. Yes, spelling and grammar make a difference. We all make mistakes but consistent simple spelling errors are a sign of a sloppy mind. There is no excuse in this day and age for spelling errors other than laziness.
Now Im not to bothered by it then alot of people here but some of these guys and there spouses . . . .you get the point
September 27th, 2009 at 10:05 pm
Oops
1. Spell check – YUP!
2. Proof read? – ummmmmm :P
September 27th, 2009 at 10:15 pm
@f420d
I think you play me next week my friend…
Ruh Roh!
September 27th, 2009 at 10:31 pm
Tor spallen iz imputant cuz it macks us sownd smert.
Yea and I hear you on the pay of tech people. I worked at a pharmacy for years and was a pharmcy tech, being the smert fellow I am I choose the computer tech field…….
September 27th, 2009 at 10:32 pm
Oh oh better start figuring out how to beef up my team, I want bragging rights next week Bahahaha
September 27th, 2009 at 10:45 pm
[...] Hat tip: The Big Picture [...]
September 27th, 2009 at 10:51 pm
Thanks for posting this interesting and relatively new metric. It gives a good “feel” for the experience in the job market and the economy generally since 2000. Too bad there isn’t any data previous to this to compare with. I suppose you might consider we are at “full employment” when the ratio is near 1. NBER should consider this one to call recession starts and ends (trough to peak for this metric). Using this definition then the 2001 recession started in mid-2000 and ended in mid-2003.
September 27th, 2009 at 10:53 pm
cv
Doesn’t you playing with f420d lead to increasingly furry flesh covered metacarpals? Or is that OK since Dr. Elders said so? :)
September 27th, 2009 at 11:09 pm
Furry flesh covered metacarpals? I thought they got that way from a different activity.
September 27th, 2009 at 11:12 pm
Robots will make this even worse.
We have to either put all the non-productive people on homesteads, give them welfare checks, or euthanize them because people will start to revolt if they don’t have incomes.
September 27th, 2009 at 11:20 pm
Asian Markets are tanking.
The Redskins suck.
September 27th, 2009 at 11:33 pm
there are plenty of jobs for the taking…in indonesia:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/28/world/asia/28jakarta.html?_r=1&hp
i can’t decide what irritates me more, these pampered snobs or the fact that nyt thought this was news worthy.
September 27th, 2009 at 11:52 pm
Well folks,
looking at the weeks ahead and the current state of things, I had to lay off three guys tonight.
If one asshole wants to talk about green shoots, I’d be happy to meet him in a dark alley right now and let him feel what it’s like to tell people they are no longer needed.
September 27th, 2009 at 11:52 pm
@MA
For real, on both remarks.
September 27th, 2009 at 11:57 pm
That article is UFB isn’t it bubba? Good grief, these incompetent fools can’t take care of themselves in their own homes without the servants around? Makes you want to plop them out in the forest for a week, or even a day for that matter.
quote: “Mrs. Farolan, a plate of chicken satay before her getting cold, said, “This is the most tiring time of the year.”’
Oh dear, what a terribly hard life. The “holiday stress” must be simply overwhelming.
There’s some serious financial inequalities in place over there, that’s for sure.
September 27th, 2009 at 11:59 pm
beaufou
That’s pretty tough, eh? I’ve thankfully never been in that position. All you can do is try to do it with dignity and honesty.
September 28th, 2009 at 12:12 am
@ot
how about this passage from the article:
“Six of the couple’s eight maids, as well as the family’s two drivers, had gone home to their villages. So for a week or more, the couple and the children still living at home had been getting by with the help of only two maids and one temporary worker they had hired.”
makes you really wanna wish financial ill will on those fukkers.
September 28th, 2009 at 12:33 am
>> We have to either put all the non-productive people on homesteads.
Productivity is on a scale. AI will complete what mechanization could not: *ALL* people will be re-classified as “non-productive”, because AI will do everything better.
Computers are constantly raising the bar. Anyone who thinks “I’m productive, unlike all those unproductive people out there” will at some point find themselves below that bar.
Years ago, you could raise a family with one wage earner who graduated high school. Then, you had to go to college. Then post-grad and 2 incomes. Etc. Etc. A lot of that is simply inter-human competition. But, it also reflects advances in software eliminating simpler jobs. At some point, multiple post-docs won’t qualify you for a job.
There’s a point where 50% of people will not be employable. I think of this as “economic judgment day”.
September 28th, 2009 at 1:00 am
@beaufou – I do not know the meaning of your handle “beaufou” but I dated a girl who’s nick name was beaufo – it was given to her because she was very beautiful (What she did spending time with me is anybodies guess)
The fact that you care and have heartfelt pain for not what you had to do, but what your people are going to have to go threw, you have a beaufo heart. And I am truly sorry, for what you had to do and for what they are going to have to go through.
@OnLooker – “Makes you want to plop them out in the forest for a week, or even a day for that matter. ”
Bahahahaha, I am 1/5 the mt man of a lot of people I know. A day all they would do is sit down and cry all day and then tell their buddies how they overcames things, a week, even in bad times most would servive. I say 10 days. And I would love to sit there and watch as from day one they would think they are in charge and not listen to a word from anybody else, day 3 hunger and confusion sets in but they would still want to call the shots, day 6-7 pain, hunger, lack of sleep and REAL fear would set in, day 8 they let the country bumkin lead the way, day 10ish they are eating the best meal of their lives at McDonald’s, day 3o telling all thier friends how brave and strong they are and how they over came adversity, but looking over thier shoulder as they lied.
September 28th, 2009 at 1:12 am
@f420d
re your lecturing of techy above on misspellings and other “interweb” nuisance. i wonder if you’ve heard of the old stones and glass house adage?
September 28th, 2009 at 1:34 am
@bubba,
Your meaning of lecture and mine may be different, so we might be splting hairs.
But if we have read the same story of stones and a glasshouse then I smile at your post :) is it the internet or the world wide web?
The intent was not to make anyone think they should be anything other then who they are, but (from my perspective) TBP posters are some pretty heady peeps, but NONE of them have the answers for ANYTHING. But they are accommodating enuff (Yup that is how I spell it out of respect for a man I love….Not you though Bubba, you a man, but not sure I love you yet :) …… )
to suffer many fools, myself included.
So in all honesty I want to know what you mean by your 1:12am post. It is now 1:30ish am and we may be on different time zones, so if you do not respond to this that is fine. And if you are not able to, I will try a couple/three times to make reference to this post.
Thanks I appreciate the dialogue.
September 28th, 2009 at 1:48 am
@f420d
i was actually referring to your 1:00 am post and noting all the typos — same kind of “who-the-fuck-cares” type of mistakes that everyone makes, only you (and i guess thor) seem to have a problem with. here’s but a sampling: “…even in bad times most would servive [survive???].
September 28th, 2009 at 1:58 am
oh fukkin-ay, i ended one of my sentences above with a preposition — a with. damn, i just did it again. my humble apologies to every literate person on this board.
September 28th, 2009 at 1:58 am
Bubba,
Thank you I do not always get the chance to review what I post (say) and your point is well taken.
Most of what I type is in text editor that helps an idoit like myself look like they know how to spell. In this case I typed, pasted, then re-read. And really-really that word stuck out in my head, but I did NOT run it through spell check.
Oh trust me bubba I am wrong more often (OK A LOT more offten) then not.
But I try…..
Thanks :)
September 28th, 2009 at 2:12 am
Bahahahahahahaha
Bubba you are so damn funny
You referncened my 1 am post, but the orginal one was (Could check, not going to) way earlier.
Boy this. in ALL honesty not to brag. I am a fairly good looking man, but when I dress in jeans and tee shirt I get the respect of a jeans and tee shirter would not….. NOT fair…. But life.
When I dress in “style” I get treated with style……….. (NOT ME)
I am not rich or poor, that is what people choice to beleive.
It was techy’s comment that I wanted to reply to NOT what he said…..
Thank you for clarifiying and then posting your mis. happs.
No one cares about mis happs, it is the content that carries the meaning.
September 28th, 2009 at 2:22 am
As an extension of the worsening the Jobs scenario, at some point the US welfare state will be under danger.
A few articles and my comments at:
1. ECB on front foot: I have always maintained, the greatest winner from the curent crisis is not the US FED or capitalism but the ECB. The policies of ECB are increasingly being noted for their oversight and regulation while maintaining some degree of looseness. Very soon we will the the 4 major foreign reserve countries shift their assets into EURO bonds instead of US T-bonds. That is the day when the US will trulybe bankrupt. The currenc crisis is only a trailer of what is coming. I agree with Marc Faber when he says the current crisis is only a precursor to the BIG one coming.
Read it here
ECB on front foot Wait till they fully assert themselves and save the US FED just as they saved iceland.
2. Employment Number analysis: Read it here
3. Factory orders analysis: Read it here
4. A an extensions of the worsening Jobs scenario, I believe at some point the US welfare state concept will be in danger Read it here
Fresbee
Investing Contrarian
September 28th, 2009 at 8:44 am
going broke Says:
September 27th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
From what I’ve read into this and facts from other sites… There’s going to be lots of people eating cold beans and rice for a very long time.
reply:
———
FYI, I have two very excellent recipes for rice and beans. Everyone should eat this good. And I have a spicy baked brown rice recipe that redefines the concept of rice. My project now is homemade pizza that can compete on the same level. Really good crust is hard to make. It really depends on the yeast, temperature and time. But I love experimenting. When I go out to eat, it is often a disappointment now.
September 28th, 2009 at 10:11 am
@bubba,
If you are here and read this (I doubt you will revist this post, just as it is doubtful I will be back after posting this)
Bahahahahaha – You thought I was lecturing techy?
No sir, I only said what I did to offer a veiw point of what he said at 1:59 pm “who cares about spelling and grammer.”
It is not my job to correct his or anyone else’s spelling or point ou their grammitical errors -I was simply answering his question i.e. If he did not ask, I would not have replied.
But it makes me smile that you went to all the trouble of posting my spelling flaws just for little O’me, thanks Bubba I did not know know you cared :)