This morning on Bloomberg Radio, I discussed prior market rallies with Jim Bianco, namely the 1937-38 and 1973-74 moves (including this Bloomberg chart).
Courtesy of Ron Griess of The Chart Store, here is an even better look at each of those moves, compared to the present rally:
Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data, ability to repeat discredited memes, and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Also, be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor even implied. Any irrelevancies you can mention will also be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof. —John Kenneth Galbraith
Retail Sales in Jan rose .4% headline m/o/m, .7% ex auto's, .6% ex auto's and gasoline and .7% at the core. The headline figure was less than expected while the rest were slightly better. But, with respect to non headline sales, because Dec figures were revised lower, taking the two months together were about in line with forecasts overall. Sales rose in electronics, building materials, food/beverages, clothing, sporting goods, dept stores and restaurant/bars and fell interestingly for online retailers, health/personal care, furniture and motor vehicle/parts. Bottom line, headline sales were below expectations due to the greater than expected fall m/o/m...
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October 21st, 2009 at 12:23 pm
So next March is the time to buy?
October 21st, 2009 at 12:28 pm
Did you know that every single person who claims to have been abducted by a UFO and who has drawn a star chart of the aliens’ home as seen from Earth has had that chart matched to a spot in the sky? 100%!
Of course, any randomly placed set of dots can be matched to some place in the heavens.
October 21st, 2009 at 1:00 pm
Looking at the relationship between the S&P and its 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs back in September suggested a rally which could meander up for quite some time.
1975 was one possible outcome. Other matches appeared for 1955, 1980, 1982, 1983, 1986 and worryingly – 1987. But the eighties lead the match.
http://zignalsblog.blogspot.com/2009/09/nasdaq-sep-22nd-2008-2179-sep-22nd-2009.html
Frustrating time for bears!
DJF
October 21st, 2009 at 1:01 pm
Well, I wish there would be a correction soon…I still have 25% of my IRA in cash, and I’m itching to buy! I’ve never been able to stomach buying in an up market though, regardless of the brightening fundamental economic situation. I’m cheap!
October 21st, 2009 at 1:05 pm
“Don’t bother calling the top, the top will call you!”
-SINGER
plati and oil exploding…
this leg up will end at some point… what this rally looks like in comparison to others is interesting but not necessarily important… only so many things can happen to the market…
here are some questions I am thinking about…
1) when will this rally end? (S&P price, Timeframe)
2) what will happen when it does?
a. small correction then resume of upside
b. larger correction then resume of upside
c. trade slightly down to sideways
d. the resumption of the prior downtrend, which has been interrupted by countertrend massive rally
what is going on with: the USD and of course its effect on
Oil
Precious Metals
10 Year Note
Interest Rates
Individual Stocks
October 21st, 2009 at 1:06 pm
We’re about due for a 5-7% correction.
After that, more upside. Dr. Ben will see to it.
October 21st, 2009 at 1:29 pm
I’m sorry but any chart comparisons in varying time frames are just utterly ridiculous unless you’re a proponent or believer of the “Secret Cycle” stuff from Martin Armstrong. Sure there are always going to be periods of economic “boom” after a big bust and that’s bound to push the market it up. We’re in that right now. But what’s driving it is vastly different from what drove the periods of boom/bust/boom in the charts above.
What is happening right now has never, repeat, never happened before in this country. There has been NO job creation in a decade and where, pray tell, is it going to come from to support our current standard of living? Boom/bust/booms are happening closer in sequence now just to sustain our inflated lifestyles. It’s gotta give at some point.
October 21st, 2009 at 1:43 pm
MERS ee me,more pain coming for the banks, waves of foreclosures, judges are rejecting MERS “straw man” role and more accounting changes, CITI rates a special mention
http://www.counterpunch.org/martens10212009.html
October 21st, 2009 at 1:50 pm
Watching the dollar continue to break down and I am wondering if a nation can depreciate its currency to prosperity anymore than it can tax its way to prosperity?
October 21st, 2009 at 1:51 pm
skysurfer,
Obama says “yes” to both.
October 21st, 2009 at 4:58 pm
skysurfer,
Depreciate to a more balanced economy? yes.
Prosperity? not so much.
October 21st, 2009 at 9:32 pm
You cannot possibly compare the 70′s to now. Today, there is no disco, no Noblisse Oblige, and the young ladies look so much healthier.
October 22nd, 2009 at 9:31 am
[...] high. Comparing past rallies to the one we are in (charts): http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/comparing-1974-75-and-1938-39-vs-2009/ Thoughts from TraderFeed (short): [...]