September NFP
Today we get another Employment Situation report. At this point, I am bored silly by the machinations that surround them.
Here is what we know: The data has been very negative, though less so lately. We are no longer losing 500k + jobs a month, and the deep, near million job losses were in the middle of credit crunch and market collapse.
The jobless rate probably rose this month again, likely hitting a 26-year high, the worst seen since 1983.
Unemployment was 9.7%, and if it hits 10%, thjere is the possibility of a trader over reaction. Consensus is for 9.8% U3, and a payroll drop of 175,000 workers (forecasts ranged from declines of 100,000 to 260,000. Total lost jobs could hit 7.2 million, the worst since the Depression.
As noted yesterday, we are unlikely to return to full pre-recession employment until 2017.
The good news is if that 175k number is hit, it would be the smallest drop in 13 months. Call it the soft prejudice of low expectations.
Watch Temporary help, Hours worked, and the Wages for as the leading components of this lagging indicator . . .
Employment situation is out at 8:30
>
Previously:
Post-Recession Employment Arithmetic (October 1, 2009)
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/post-recession-employment-arithmetic/
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October 2nd, 2009 at 7:22 am
First!
At least the trajectory is in the right direction.
October 2nd, 2009 at 7:35 am
If anyone, particklelerly the cognoscenti on this board actually believes the print of 9. whatever is the actual percentage of U/E then put your felled teeth under your pillow.
Why BR prints this here is beyond naive.
October 2nd, 2009 at 8:32 am
agreed BR. i think the market is far more likely to gain on a more favorable report than lose similarly if the report is more negative. the psychology is still in the bullish camp.
October 2nd, 2009 at 9:13 am
Welcome to Red October™. Vindication, baby.