Today, we are expecting a very noisy, very funky NFP report. That is what the “N” and the “F” stand for in this NFP report: Noisy & Funky

Last month, we noted how much the Census data was skewing employment reports. The Labor Department had hired ~417,000 more census workers, and that was skewing the numbers. We even said you could see a crazy number, as high as ~700k, and you should ignore it.

The next few months is the unwind of the census hiring. Bloomberg’s survey of economists had a median estimate of a payroll declined of 130,000 in June. Ignore that as well.

Given all the noise, these estimates are little more than a wild-assed guesses. The reporting week for NFP does not fit in precisely with the Census layoffs, and so we could see a payroll report plus or minus 250k around that number. Anything between plus 100k new jobs and minus 400k should not surprise traders (but probably will).

One last trader’s caveat: Expectations for this report have been continually ratcheted down this month. Whisper numbers are for an awful data point. Hence, anything less than horrible number could spark a relief rally.

Its all about the noise . . .


BLS release at 8:30am

Category: Employment

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

11 Responses to “NFP: Bring Da Noise, Bring in Da Funk”

  1. Sircornflakes says:

    I call -202, unless I’m wrong then it will be +225K

    I’m surprised that with both gold and crude off their nut that CAD isn’t much weaker.

    Happy 4th of July to y’all!

  2. Dennis says:

    Dude, Becky quick just ripped you off totally — discussing a relief rally

  3. “Its all about the noise . . .”–BR, above


    do you mean, like, this ?

    but, on a different facet, this: “Hence, anything less than horrible number could(will -ed.) spark a relief rally.” has to be the ‘odds-on’ bet..

  4. cvienne says:

    Relief Rally…

    Yeah that would be great because if they could gun this thing all the way back to 1220 by, say, the end of the day, they might be able to avoid the DARK CROSS next Tuesday…

  5. Greg0658 says:

    fyi – done with both now – from Census (taxes withheld no benefits) to YellowBook (1099 SubContractor) .. the Dex should be coming out soon but gonna pass – summer gets busier with regular stuff …. on manufacturing kicking into gear – like 16K – 500 to build Top-Hats (design/build) – and 15.5K to produce absorbant booms – with ??K Service Sector combing the beaches

  6. Marcus Aurelius says:

    Don’t worry, it’s summer — the Christmas shopping season will put us in the plus column across the board.

  7. Mike in Nola says:

    Barry’s post was just what I was thinking. I rarely trade short term and certainly would not care to be in the market today.

    I suppose CNBC will have the rally hats ready just in case.

  8. Marcus Aurelius says:

    OT, from the onion:

    U.S. Government Stages Fake Coup To Wipe Out National Debt.

  9. ashpelham2 says:

    Off topic, But I think Ms. Quick has had some work done. Some work in the frontalus chestal region.

    Just an observation. One of many that will be made before today is over. Hopefully other observations will be more useful.

  10. MorticiaA says:

    @ashpelham2 July 2nd, 2010 at 9:28 am:

    Did you know there are websites regarding Ms. Quick by her adoring fans? They are more about “Is she married or not?” and other Us Magazine-type gossip. Apparently too many people have too much time on their hands.

    I’m considering a website devoted to my own hero worship of Barry, and how cute I think he is.

  11. d4winds says:

    “Given all the noise, these estimates are little more than a wild-assed guesses.”

    In a self-feeding rumor mill where reality is only occasionally touched, wild-assed guesses can become “facts.”