Last week, we ran this series of Sentiment charts.

Today, I want to share with you a few interesting economic cycle charts:

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Category: Cycles, Economy

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

8 Responses to “Economic Cycles and Investing”

  1. KJMClark says:

    Now you need one for long (demographic) waves. As in, Generation A grows up during a crash, saves strongly, creates conditions for growth. Generation B thinks their parents are foolish Scrooges, spends, increasing growth but building up debt. Generation C sees grows up during debt-fueled growth, enjoys the good times, but then has to deal with the crash. Repeat.

  2. B_Lev says:

    A number of the cycle charts show ‘rising inflation’ as a characteristic of an economy slowing/ entering a recession. At the same time, the charts suggest stocks and commodity prices start falling. Is this contradiction apparent?

    Why are prices increasing during a recession when (presumably) velocity slows? Outside of the 70’s stagflation or Volcker ‘ringing out’ inflation by inducing a recession (contractionary monetary) in the early 80’s, why would we associate a recession with increasing prices? Text Book. Inflation is expansionary. Right?

    Gen C! woop!

  3. orvil tootenbacher says:

    nice qualitative charts. do they stand up to actual market data? if so, let’s see it.

  4. machinehead says:

    Beware of overly general charts — such as the 2nd (red & green) one.

    Finance during early recession and bear market? How did that work out for y’all in 2008?

  5. royrogers says:

    so when does the bond yields start rising when central bankers don’t want it to rise ??

  6. ralphwl says:

    I find this helpful. Investment professionals know this but it’s helpful to see visually. The problem that I see is identifying where you are currently in the cycle. I thought I knew but I am not so sure anymore….

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