The other day, someone asked me when foreclosure activity would begin to reflect what I wrote earlier this year (Foreclosure machinery creaks back to life).

After peaking in Q2 2009 & Q3 2010 respectively, Foreclosure Starts and Bank Repossessions have trended downwards ever since. The voluntary mortgage abatements of 2011 during the robosigning negotiations kept the momentum going.

Now, we are starting to see early signs that the foreclosures are beginning to tick back up. September’s numbers  was plus 1%, and now October is up 3%.

I suspect we are going to see these numbers continue to creep up, even without any sort of economic slow down. If we do see a recession, than that slow crawl higher becomes faster.

 

 

http://www.realtytrac.com/images/reportimages/foreclosure_starts_completions_Jan06_Oct12.jpg

 

 

 

BTW, you can access everything I’ve written on Foreclosures here and on Real Estate here.

 

Source:
Foreclosure Activity Increased 3 Percent in October
RealtyTrac, November 15, 2012
http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/october-2012-us-foreclosure-market-report-7474

Category: Foreclosures, Real Estate

Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.

11 Responses to “October Foreclosure Activity Rises +3%”

  1. DeDude says:

    The “foreclosure starts” numbers are fed directly by the “90 days delinquent” numbers. The “90 days delinquent” numbers are falling (http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/11/q3-mba-national-delinquency-survey.html). I doubt the starts will break 100K unless we have a recession that can produce more “60-90 day delinquents”. Furthermore, my impression from numbers at “Calculated Risk” is that banks have become a lot more open to the idea of doing short sales than to foreclose.

  2. theexpertisin says:

    I and several of my peers in the landlording business have noticed an increase in foreclosures on properties that were bought 2010-2011 by investors/speculators. I have been in a few of the properties. It appears to me as though the were given a Home Depot makeover, and trashed by a tenant.

    I think that many wannabe investment moguls, like poor security investors, are being thrown out of the market because they did not understand the business they purchased. No money down seminars are worse than penny stocks, IMO.

    We are a long way from solving the housing sitaution in this country. And BR has been on top of the residential real estate game for quite some time.

  3. vachon says:

    Two questions: is this part of the sub-shadow inventory? How many months were these foreclosures non-performing?

  4. Hammer of Thor says:

    It’s hard to look at that chart and get worried. I count 4 head fakes on that chart over the past few years. Confirmation bias?

  5. BuildingCom says:

    Finding TRUTH about housing is nearly impossible due to the massive number of paid hacks posting sheer and utter BS as it relates to housing.

    The reality?

    -Housing prices have resumed their decline and are accelerating

    -Tens of millions of excess and defaulted housing have still yet to be be disposed.

    -Housing demand is at 15 year lows and falling

    -rental rates are falling

  6. DeDude says:

    @BuildingCom;

    That is a lot of statements contradicting the numbers that I have seen over at “Calculated Risk”.
    Do you have any data to support them or is it just something you pulled out of your “gut feeling”?
    Would be very interested in hearing about how exactly you define and find “TRUTH”

  7. BuildingCom says:

    Prices began falling MoM starting in October.

    Excess empty inventory is shown on Census bureau data. Go look it up.

    Housing demand is what it is. Sales are at 1997 levels. I’m not going to make a chart of it for you.

    Rental rates are falling per Trans Unions recent study

    Now you can go on invoking BS from known clowns like McBride or go look at the data and seek the truth?

    Whats it gonna be??

  8. DeDude says:

    @BuildingCon;

    Actually McBride gives direct links to his sources so everybody can check out not just the numbers but also the methods used to collect them. If you go back the last 5 years his predictions have been pretty accurate. That is a heck of a lot better than making a conclusion based on ONE month of lower numbers (please teach me how to observe an “accelerating decline” by a lower number one month ago). He also use multiple data sources on the same issue (e.g. property value increases) rather than Cherry-Picking that one outlier source that support a specific point of view. I agree demands are very low, but where did you get the idea that they are falling.

    You should take a lesson from what happened to those blowhard ass-clowns that predicting election results for the Romney campaign. The TRUTH does not flow from strong convictions, it flows from careful and unbiased analysis of multiple sources of data – and from enough humility to actually accept it even when it doesn’t smack you in the face.

  9. BuildingCom says:

    “Actually McBride”

    Then go over there and read up but don’t pimp his junk here.

    .”If you go back the last 5 years his predictions have been pretty accurate. ”

    No they haven’t.

    “That is a heck of a lot better than making a conclusion based on ONE month of lower numbers”

    Nobody here is using one month data.

    “You should take a lesson”

    Here’s a lesson for you my friend. We’re going to speak to truth to housing and the public no matter what you distortionists do.

  10. DeDude says:

    Well you have fun with your investments in your imaginary world and I will have fun in data-driven reality.

  11. BuildingCom says:

    We’re having alot of fun exposing you housing distortionists and realtor hacks.